Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia on fire."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - this video is the first part of the Ukraine War Update for 19th May 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian losses for 18/05/2024
🎦 00:09-02:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily report published by the Ukrainian General Staff, noting some incredibly high Russian losses. He shares viewer Thierry's observation that May's Russian losses are roughly equivalent to the entire armed forces of many European countries (e.g. Great Britain, France or Germany). Links to daily loss trend dashboards compiled by Dell and Bill are in the video description.
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Oryx/Andrew Perpetua - visually confirmed equipment losses for 18/05/2024
🎦 02:31-05:28⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually-confirmed equipment loss data from Oryx, curated by Andrew Perpetua. He observes a significant 5:1 loss ratio in favour of the Ukrainians, and speculates that a higher than usual number of US-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles appearing on the list may be due to the Ukrainians having exhausted their stocks of older BMP infantry fighting vehicles. However, he acknowledges that it may also be because Bradleys are superior and therefore the preferred option, even if more vulnerable. The appearance of more and more civilian motorcycles on the loss lists is also noted.
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Russian equipment losses - overnight 18/05 - 19/05/2024
🎦 05:28-09:00⏩
Jonathan reviews overnight equipment losses using information and imagery shared on Telegram. The destruction of a Russian Estrella 10 short-range air defence system and electronic warfare equipment is confirmed. Images show the destruction of multiple artillery systems, including D-20 and D-30 howitzers. Jonathan observes that the Russians appear to be using an increasing number of older tanks with makeshift armour protection - "tracked garden sheds". The destruction of one such vehicle, a T-80, is confirmed, along with several T-62s. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians have gotten better at destroying these modified vehicles. He also notes a large number of destroyed Russian infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs), MT-LB and BTR armoured personnel carriers, as well as civilian vehicles - including several motorcycles.
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Russian Navy Kovrovets-class Minesweeper sunk by Ukrainian forces
🎦 09:00-09:48⏩
Jonathan reports the sinking of a Russian Navy Kovrovets-class minesweeper, probably in the port of Sevastopol. It is unclear if the vessel was destroyed by USV naval drones or aerial drones. Jonathan notes that this represents another embarrassing loss for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has been consistently degraded since the start of the war.
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Ukrainian long-range strikes overnight 18/05-19/05/2024 - Overview
🎦 09:48-10:06⏩
, 29:11-30:14⏩
Jonathan provides an overview of Ukrainian long-range strikes overnight on targets in Russian-occupied Crimea and Russia itself. These attacks follow drone and missile strikes on the Crimean port cities of Novorossiysk and Sevastopol two out of the previous three nights. Targets included:
- An oil depot in Vyborg in Northwest Russia (less than 50km from the Finnish border).
- The Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
- The military airfield and encampment at Kuzchevskaya, also in Krasnodar Krai
- A recreation centre in Kharkiv (with four confirmed dead, 15 injured)
Loss of Ukrainian Su-25 and Pilot Lieutenant Colonel Denis Vasiljuk
🎦 10:06-12:03⏩
Jonathan reports the loss of a Ukrainian Su-25 ground attack aircraft, allegedly shot down by the 110th Separate Mechanised Brigade. He notes that this is the sort of tit-for-tat incident we can expect to see more often as the war continues. In sadder news for the Ukrainian Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Vasiljuk, chief of staff and first deputy commander of the AFU aviation squadron, has been killed during a combat mission. The circumstances surrounding his death are unclear. Jonathan notes that the loss of experienced Ukrainian pilots is a blow, as they are a highly valuable asset.
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Ukrainian strike on Vovchansk hospital occupied by Kadyrovite Chechen fighters
🎦 12:03-13:07⏩
Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian strike by a JDAM-ER guided bomb or GLSDB guided rocket has destroyed a hospital in Vovchansk, in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast. The hospital, which had been evacuated, was being used as a headquarters by Russian forces, allegedly Kadyrovite Chechen fighters loyal to Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov. Jonathan shares a still image showing the destroyed hospital building.
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Ukrainian forces deploy French HAMMER extended range guided bombs in Kherson
🎦 13:07-13:45⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have successfully deployed French HAMMER extended range guided bombs against targets on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson. He notes that this is good news, as the HAMMER system appears to be more reliable than the problematic US-supplied JDAM-ER system, even if it lacks its glide capabilities.
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Ukrainian strikes increasingly targetting Russian officers
🎦 13:45-14:58⏩
Jonathan reports that a growing number of Russian officers appear to be dying in Ukrainian strikes, citing the example of Colonel Magomajanov, who was killed on the left bank of the Dnipro River. However, he notes that it’s impossible to say how Ukrainian officer casualties compare to those being sustained by the Russians. Jonathan expresses outrage over recent drone footage showing a Russian incendiary bomb attack on an elderly couple's home in the Dnipro region - an act he (correctly) describes as a war crime. He notes that it is common for the Russians to release drone footage of their own war crimes, as they did with footage showing the looting of homes in Vovchansk.
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Derailment of Russian freight train in Krasnoyarsk
🎦 16:14-16:32⏩
, 31:29-31:45⏩
Jonathan reports the derailment of a Russian freight train, reportedly carrying fuel, in Krasnoyarsk. He notes that the cause of the incident is unknown.
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Large fire in St Petersburg
🎦 16:32-17:00⏩
, 28:17-28:31⏩
Footage shows a massive fire in St Petersburg. The cause and exact location of the fire are unknown.
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European ex-artilleryman Thomas C. Theiner on the depletion of Russian artillery stockpiles
🎦 17:00-18:39⏩
Jonathan cites a tweet by European ex-artilleryman Thomas C. Theiner, who has been closely monitoring events in Ukraine, in which he reacts to the depletion of Russian towed artillery stockpiles. Theiner believes that Russia will have exhausted its Cold War legacy stockpiles by next year, and if Western countries were prepared to switch their defence industries to a war footing, Russia could be crushed by the summer of 2025. Jonathan, however, is sceptical that Western politicians have the will to commit to such a strategy, although he agrees that - in principle - this should be an easy war for the West to win. He believes that the West should be focusing on supplying the Ukrainians with overwhelming quantities of long-range weaponry, rather than seeking to match Russia tank for tank and shell for shell. He sees the recent increase in Ukrainian drone and missile attacks inside Russia as a positive development in this respect.
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Effectiveness of Ukrainian Air Defences
🎦 28:40-29:53⏩
Jonathan is impressed by the performance of Ukraine's increasingly effective air defences, citing recent reports suggesting a 100% drone interception rate for the previous week. Although he acknowledges that such claims should be treated with caution, as Ukraine will be understandably keen to present its successes in a positive light, they have been candid in the past about interceptions rates when they haven't gone so well.
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Impact of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian energy infrastructure
🎦 34:19-35:36⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. He notes that strikes earlier in the war disrupted 14% of Russia's oil refining capacity, and questions whether the Ukrainians are now focusing on electricity sub-stations in order to damage Russia’s ability to wage war, or as reprisals for Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
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Impact of the war on Russian troop morale
🎦 35:36-36:21⏩
Jonathan notes an increase in complaints about non-payment of Russian troops, and suggests that this may be a sign that the Russian Defence Ministry is struggling financially, or does not expect those it sends to Ukraine to survive long enough to warrant payment. He shares a video clip of a wounded Russian soldier angrily complaining about the situation. Jonathan notes that dissatisfaction appears to be growing, not just among serving soldiers, but their families too.
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Update on "Dragon's Teeth" defences in the Sumy region
🎦 36:21-36:55⏩
Responding to viewer concerns about the slow pace of deployment of “Dragon's Teeth” anti-tank defences in the Sumy region, Jonathan shares footage in which an unnamed man reassures viewers that installation will begin soon.
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Zelensky on the timing of a Ukrainian counteroffensive
🎦 36:55-38:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky has ruled out a major counteroffensive until the front has been stabilised and newly-supplied brigades are fully equipped. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians would be unwise to launch anything major before 2025, but agrees with recent analysis suggesting that the Ukrainians need to keep up the pressure on the Russians with more localised attacks, rather than allow them to seize the initiative, or appear weak.
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The importance of long-range strikes to Ukraine's war effort
🎦 38:26-40:11⏩
Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians have had a very good week, as evidenced by the success of their long-range strikes, which have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians at almost zero cost to Ukrainian forces. He argues that these strikes are essential in order to offset the risk of Ukrainian troops being attrited in any future counteroffensive, and if they can be sustained, will put Russia in an increasingly difficult position.
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Oleksandr Usyk defeats Daniel Dubois to retain heavyweight title
🎦 40:11-41:32⏩
Jonathan is clearly delighted by Oleksandr Usyk's victory over Daniel Dubois to retain his WBO, WBA, IBF and IBO heavyweight titles. He feels this will give the Ukrainians a well-deserved morale boost, coming as it does on the same night as another Ukrainian victory in the ring: Artur Beterbiev’s defeat of Anthony Yarde to retain his WBC, IBF, and WBO light-heavyweight titles.
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Sudden death of Honduran ambassador to Russia Juan Salgado
🎦 42:07-42:26⏩
In breaking news, Jonathan reports that the Honduran ambassador to Russia, Juan Salgado, has died suddenly. The cause of death is unknown.
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Wrap up
🎦 42:26-42:34⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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