Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine can win this war, but they just need stuff"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War update for the 17th of February 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - High Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-01:02⏩
Jonathan begins by referencing good news reported in his previous breaking news update, confirming that 3 Russian jets were shot down. He expresses cautious optimism about the accuracy of the Ukrainian General Staff Reports (regarding Russian losses), stating that despite some incredibly high figures, the claims appear to be justified by visually confirmed evidence and reports from commanders on the ground.
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Russian Losses
🎦 01:02-02:05⏩
Jonathan analyses the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff report, highlighting:
- 1,050 Russian personnel were lost
- 11 Tanks
- 16 Armoured Personnel Carriers
- 28 artillery systems.
Jonathan notes that the loss of 28 artillery systems is a high number compared to recent figures, attributing the reduction to a reliance on FPV drones for counter battery activities.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 02:05-02:56⏩
Jonathan refers to information provided by defence analyst Andrew Perpetua, summarising Ukrainian losses as:
- 1x Leopard 2A4 Tank - Jonathan expresses regret that the tank, an incredibly valuable piece of kit, was lost to a FAB aviation bomb crater and was likely finished off by Russian drones
- 2x T-64 Tanks
- Several BMPs
Jonathan emphasises that despite the loss of the Leopard 2A4, overall Russian losses were more valuable in terms of mass.
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Effective Use of FPV Drones by Ukrainian Forces
🎦 02:56-04:36⏩
Jonathan refers to Andrew Perpetua's analysis that Ukrainian forces have been successfully disrupting Russian logistics around Avdiivka using FPV drones, causing significant damage to trucks bringing supplies to the front line. He posits that FPV drones may be more effective (and cheaper) than artillery for this purpose due to their higher chance of successfully hitting moving vehicles.
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Patriot Systems Successfully Deployed Near Avdiivka
🎦 04:36-05:31⏩
Jonathan expresses delight that the recent downing of 2 Russian Su-34 fighter bombers and 1 Su-35 fighter jet was likely the result of a Patriot system being deployed in the East. He speculates that it may have taken a week to achieve this due to the time required to identify predictable Russian flight paths. He is hopeful that this will provide some respite for Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka by reducing the number of FABs being dropped.
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Zelensky: Russian Losses in Avdiivka Seven Times Higher Than Ukraine's
🎦 05:31-06:51⏩
Jonathan reports Zelensky's comments at the Munich Security conference, stating that Russian losses in Avdiivka are seven times higher than those suffered by the Ukrainians. Jonathan agrees with Zelensky's assessment, pointing to previous battles (e.g Bakhmut) which also resulted in disproportionately high casualties for Russian forces. He argues that the high casualty rate is a consequence of Russia's disregard for the lives of its soldiers (particularly when those soldiers are conscripts, convicts or foreign fighters), who are sent on "suicidal" frontal assaults. He cynically suggests that the capture of strategically unimportant towns like Avdiivka, achieved at such a high cost, are nothing more than propaganda victories for Putin.
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Avdiivka - Ukrainian Perspective
🎦 06:51-09:47⏩
Jonathan provides an account of the situation in Avdiivka from the perspective of an unnamed Ukrainian soldier fighting in the 110th Brigade, based on messages posted online on February 3rd. The soldier describes:
- A lack of rotation
- Heavy attrition
- Shortage of soldiers
- Difficulty moving at night
- Chronic health issues
- Average age of soldiers being 40-45 years
- Few remaining fortifications
Jonathan clarifies that this account pre-dates the arrival of reinforcements, although acknowledges that the situation remains difficult for Ukrainian forces.
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Avdiivka - Russian Perspective
🎦 09:47-14:53⏩
Jonathan highlights the importance of understanding Russian perspectives on the conflict, quoting Colonel Shovolov Ptutir Ilyich, who confirms that Russian casualties in Avdiivka have been far higher than in Bakhmut. Ptutir Ilyich describes Avdiivka as a "bloody meatgrinder", where "every centimeter of vast territory has been chewed out" and "every step drenched in blood." Jonathan likens the fighting to the horrors of the First World War, voicing his disdain for those who glorify such bloodshed.
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Avdiivka - Corroborating Reports
🎦 14:53-16:31⏩
Jonathan provides further evidence to support claims of heavy Russian losses in Avdiivka, citing:
- A user comment, quoting the Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade, claiming that 100 Russians are attacking for every 6 Ukrainian soldiers defending.
- The Deputy Commander's claim that the 3rd Assault Brigade has already destroyed over 4,000 Russian soldiers in Avdiivka
- Recalling accounts from previous battles of Ukrainians running out of ammunition due to the sheer number of Russians they were fighting.
- Whilst acknowledging that such accounts could be propaganda, he notes that similar claims are being made by both sides in the conflict.
Russian POW Claims Soldiers Given Pills to Suppress Fear
🎦 16:31-17:07⏩
Jonathan reports an unverified claim from a Russian POW, who alleges that Russian soldiers are being given pills (potentially amphetamines) to suppress their fear and increase their energy levels. The POW states that only 4 soldiers from his unit of 100 survived the fighting in Avdiivka. Whilst advising caution, Jonathan acknowledges that such claims sound plausible.
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Polish Warmate Loitering Munitions Destroy Russian Radar System
🎦 17:07-17:27⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Polish-supplied Warmate loitering munition destroying a Russian 2S2E2 radar system. Jonathan observes that there has been an increase in footage showing the deployment of Warmate systems.
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Ukrainian Priest Killed by Russian Forces in Kherson
🎦 17:27-17:43⏩
Jonathan reports the death of Stepan Podolchak, a Ukrainian priest from the Russian-occupied Kherson region, who is alleged to have been tortured and killed by Russian forces.
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Suspected Ukrainian Strike Destroys Russian Drone Factory
🎦 17:43-18:11⏩
Jonathan cites reports of a large fire at a Russian drone factory, covering an area of 3,500 metres, speculating that this is the result of a Ukrainian strike.
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Ukraine Drone Strikes Inside Russia
🎦 18:11-21:30⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that 33 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over 5 Russian oblasts. He is sceptical of claims by the Russian Defence Ministry to have shot down all of the drones, suggesting the actual number involved was likely higher. He believes that Ukraine now has a "superiority" in drone manufacturing, thanks to a combination of domestic production and military aid, highlighting a £200bn aid package from the UK. He suggests that whilst Ukraine may be struggling to maintain supplies of artillery, they are increasingly capable of inflicting significant damage within Russia's borders. He sees the targeting of Russian drone factories as a particular success for Ukraine, as it both degrades Russia's own drone capability and reduces the need to divert resources to defend against such attacks. Jonathan sees drone warfare as a key aspect of the conflict, both now and in the future, and is optimistic about Ukraine's increasing capabilities in this area.
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UN "Unable to Verify" Reports of North Korea Supplying Arms to Russia
🎦 21:30-22:51⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration at the UN's refusal to acknowledge reports of North Korea supplying weapons to Russia. He questions whether this is a deliberate attempt by the UN to avoid having to take action against Russia for breaching UN resolutions by acquiring arms from a sanctioned nation. He speculates that Russia's expulsion from the UN Security Council could be one consequence of such an admission.
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Zelensky: Ukraine Needs More Military Aid from the West
🎦 22:51-25:30⏩
Jonathan reiterates Zelensky's call for the West to provide Ukraine with more military aid, highlighting the importance of artillery ammunition and long-range weapons. He argues that the West's failure to fully commit to arming Ukraine is giving Putin time to adapt and intensify the conflict. Jonathan argues that Russia's only advantage is their willingness to sacrifice the lives of their soldiers, an advantage which could be quickly negated if Ukraine was supplied with sufficient quantities of advanced weaponry by the West. Jonathan passionately believes that Ukraine can win the war, but only if the West dramatically increases military aid. He urges viewers to imagine the effect of providing Ukraine with 10,000 HIMARS missiles, 2,000 ATACAMS, 500 Storm Shadows, 500 Taurus missiles and "millions" of artillery shells over a three month period, confident that such an act would cripple Russia's war effort.
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Sirsky Orders Withdrawal from Avdiivka
🎦 26:08-27:49⏩
Jonathan reports that General Syrsky, commander of Ukraine's ground forces (and known by some as "the Butcher" due to the high casualty rate of his campaigns), has ordered a withdrawal from Avdiivka. He believes that Syrsky has learned from past criticism (particularly relating to his handling of the battle for Bakhmut), and is now more mindful of the need to preserve the lives of his soldiers. Jonathan highlights Syrsky's clear communication about the decision to withdraw, seeing this as an attempt to control the narrative and avoid accusations of recklessness. He shows a map of Avdiivka, highlighting the areas still under Ukrainian control.
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Elon Musk and David Sacks Downplay Putin's Role in Navalny's Death
🎦 27:49-30:17⏩
Jonathan criticises Elon Musk and venture capitalist David Sacks for spreading pro-Kremlin narratives and downplaying the possibility that Alexei Navalny's death was ordered by Putin. He accuses Sachs, a close confidant of Musk, of acting as a useful idiot for the Kremlin and brands him an "eejit". He suggests that Musk, influenced by Sachs, is deliberately spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda in order to undermine support for Ukraine.
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Russians React to Navalny's Death
🎦 30:17-33:26⏩
Jonathan contrasts the views of David Sachs, who denies that Putin was involved in Navalny's death, with those of ordinary Russians, many of whom believe that the opposition leader was murdered on Putin's orders. He shows vox-pop footage of Russians reacting to Navalny's death with a mixture of sadness and indifference. Jonathan notes that whilst some express admiration for Navalny, describing him as a "brave and honest man", many appear resigned to the idea that his death will have little impact on Russian politics. He sees this apathy, coupled with a reluctance to openly criticise Putin, as evidence of a "slave mentality".
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Russians Arrested for Laying Flowers in Memory of Navalny
🎦 33:26-35:17⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage at reports that over 100 people have been arrested across Russia for laying flowers in memory of Navalny. He describes the actions of the Russian authorities as "really sad" and condemns their attempts to eradicate all signs of public mourning for the opposition leader. He urges viewers to contrast Russia's actions with those of democratic countries, where freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest are respected. He implores viewers to support Ukraine and condemns those who continue to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda.
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Wrap up
🎦 35:17-35:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off with "Slava Ukraini".
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