Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - Hungary, Poland, Ru Economy, Empires

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war news update focusing on geopolitical news, which he believes is the fourth part of today's content. He mentions starting with Russia in the Baltic Sea.

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Russia Providing Naval Escorts for Shadow Fleet in Baltic Sea

🎦 00:29-01:36⏩
Medusa reports that Russia has begun providing naval escorts for its "shadow fleet" ships in the Gulf of Finland, according to the Finnish Defence Minister. This involves warships and armed forces. The Finnish Navy has confirmed an increase in military traffic. While Finland doesn't see a direct threat, the minister stated that Russia is building up military capabilities and is an "aggressive and dangerous neighbour for all of Europe." Jonathan suggests this is Russia's way to prevent its unseaworthy or suspicious shadow ships from being boarded and inspected, questioning what response this move will elicit from European neighbours and NATO.

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Denmark to Influence Hungary over Ukraine Stance and Rule of Law

🎦 01:38-02:41⏩
Denmark's Minister for European Affairs announced that during its presidency of the Council of the EU, Denmark plans to use "all possible tools to influence Hungary" over its position on Ukraine and its rule of law situation. Jonathan views this as good news for the EU. However, he notes that ministers will not press for sanctions against Hungary under Article 7 due to a lack of the necessary majority, meaning such action is not imminent.

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Viktor Orbán's Use of Social Media and Disinformation in Hungary

🎦 02:41-04:01⏩
Jonathan discusses why Viktor Orbán has remained in power for so long, citing information from Spalak Panis. He highlights that Meta (Facebook) has allegedly taken "tons of money" from Orbán's government and proxies, making Facebook his primary propaganda tool. New data shows that Orbán's Fidesz party and its associated government entities outspent all of Poland, a country four times larger than Hungary, during its entire presidential campaign. Jonathan concludes that Orbán has successfully utilised social media and disinformation to maintain his powerful position, despite recent polls suggesting Peter Magyar is now significantly ahead.

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Hungary and Slovakia Refuse EU Document on Democratic Resilience & Germany's Warning

🎦 04:01-05:16⏩
Hungary and Slovakia have refused to sign an EU Council document aimed at strengthening democratic resilience, which Jonathan suggests is a sign of their autocratic tendencies. Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Germany might push to suspend EU funding to Slovakia if it continues to drift from the bloc's common cause, stating that countries undermining the rule of law risk financial consequences. Jonathan agrees with Merz's stance but laments that efforts to invoke Article 7 against Hungary previously failed due to insufficient signatories.

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Slovak PM Fico's Rejection of German Criticism and Demands for Ukraine's Mineral Wealth

🎦 05:17-06:23⏩
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico responded sharply to German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of depriving Slovakia of EU funding, stating, "Slovakia is not a little student that needs to be taught." Fico called Merz's words "absolutely unacceptable" and questioned if Slovakia would be "punished" for not obeying, affirming Slovakia's right to defend its viewpoint, including on issues like nuclear fuel imports from Russia or criticising President Zelensky's gas transit decision. Furthermore, Slovakia's ruling SNS party demanded financial compensation from Ukraine for aid already provided and called for an EU procedure to secure a share in Ukraine's mineral wealth. Jonathan finds this "absolutely despicable," especially concerning Slovakia's demand for a share in Ukraine's resources, arguing it's about "extracting from the victim." He also criticised the US (specifically the Trump administration) for its "horrific" actions concerning Ukraine.

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Ukraine as a Political Football in Polish Presidential Debates and US Interference

🎦 06:37-10:01⏩
Ukraine has become a central topic in Polish presidential debates, used as a "political football" in the runoff between Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (centrist) and Karol Nowrocki (right-wing populist). Trzaskowski criticised Nowrocki for opposing Ukraine's NATO accession, comparing his rhetoric to Vladimir Putin's, saying it's "exactly what they cheer for in the Kremlin." Nowrocki retorted that his views reflect what "many Poles feel" about Zelensky "treating us badly," claiming Poles are "afraid of being accused of working for Putin." Jonathan notes that Nowrocki appears increasingly pro-Putin and mentioned a bizarre incident where Nowrocki took a "sniff of snuff" during the debate. Jonathan then strongly condemned the US administration's open interference in the election. US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem urged Poles to vote for Nowrocki, stating his victory would "ensure continued US military support and strong ties with Washington." Jonathan labelled this as "absolutely despicable blackmail," questioning why the US government is interfering in allies' domestic politics and elections.

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Czechia's Pro-Russian ANO Party and Impact on Ukraine Support

🎦 10:01-12:10⏩
The Czech government condemned China for a cyber campaign against its Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Jonathan highlights concerns about Czechia's ANO party, which is gaining popularity and is seen as pro-Putin. This party seeks to cancel the ammunition initiative, push Russian Rosatom into a nuclear tender, vote against supporting Ukraine in the EU, and align with Viktor Orbán. They also did nothing to reduce reliance on Russian fuels and previously diverted funds from the army. Jonathan notes that Czechia has been a fundamental supporter of Ukraine, making the ANO party's pro-Russian stance worrying as another Eastern European nation falls under Putin's influence, sometimes with perceived indirect US help (as in Poland).

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Trump Dismantles Russian Oligarch Asset Seizure Initiative & Fuels Dirty Money Influx

🎦 12:11-12:35⏩
Jonathan reports that Donald Trump has dismantled a Biden initiative aimed at seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs. He states this move "tells you all you need to know about Trump and what his desires are." According to the Daily Beast, this action has reportedly "fueled a wave of dirty money coming into the United States from Russia," helping Russian billionaires conceal their cash.

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Elon Musk, Telegram, and Russian AI Propaganda

🎦 12:38-14:21⏩
Reports indicate that Elon Musk's AI company, XAI, and Telegram (owned by Pavel Durov, who was recently detained and released in France) are creating a joint venture to distribute Russian AI propaganda. Telegram, long suspected as a tool of the Kremlin, will receive $300 million in cash and equity from XAI, plus 50% of revenue from XAI subscriptions sold via Telegram. Jonathan expresses deep frustration, stating that "truth and information loses" when a pro-Russian entity like Telegram partners with another perceived pro-Russian entity like Elon Musk, seeing it as another step in the "wrong direction."

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Republican View on Trump, Russia Sanctions, and NATO from Anonymous Senior Republican

🎦 14:23-20:38⏩
Jonathan discusses Philip O'Brien's third interview with an anonymous senior Republican (a figure with over 45 years in Republican politics and deep ties to past presidents).

• Trump and Russia Sanctions: The source states Trump will resist imposing significant new sanctions on Russia as long as possible, for unclear reasons (possibly business ties, a preference for Russia over Ukraine, or a belief Russia could be an ally against China). The Republican suggests Europe "must now take the lead," strengthen its military, and impose strong sanctions on Russia. Jonathan interjects that this is problematic, as without US participation, European consumers would face economic disadvantages due to higher costs.
• Sanction Efficacy and Escalation: The source believes sanctions lose potency over time. The West must escalate support for Ukraine, including providing advanced targeting capabilities for strategic strikes on military and industrial infrastructure inside Ukraine and Russia. Germany's decision to authorise Ukraine to strike targets anywhere in Russia using German weapons is praised as a "commendable step."
• Lowering Oil Prices: The source argues that lowering global oil prices (e.g., by opening new fields, increasing subsidies, pressuring Saudi Arabia) would damage Russia's war effort more effectively and quickly end the war than any sanctions package.
• Trump Selling Weapons to Ukraine: The source suggests it would be a "brilliant move" for Trump to sell weapons to Ukraine, as it would stimulate the US economy and reassert American influence, but notes no sign of Trump considering this, calling it "disappointing and baffling."
• Trust in NATO Defence: The Republican "would not trust Trump to defend a NATO country if attacked by Russia," fearing he would not invoke Article 5 in a scenario like a Russian invasion of Russian-speaking parts of Estonia.
• Trump's Influence on GOP: While Trump has a strong grip on the Republican Party, his control is not complete and may weaken as midterms approach, with members prioritising their seats.

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White House Weighing Pressure on Russia While Maintaining Ties and Trump's Strategy

🎦 20:43-21:19⏩
According to Noll Reports and Bloomberg, the White House is considering how to pressure Russia without severing ties with Putin. Trump, despite his wariness of sanctions, is reportedly growing frustrated with Putin. He might allow the Graham-Blumenthal bill, which imposes 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, to pass while maintaining back channels. Jonathan believes this indicates Trump's reluctance to genuinely pressure Russia, suggesting his aides are strategically navigating this, as Trump himself "likes Putin, likes strongmen" and is easily manipulated.

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The "Age of Empires" - Trump's Vision of Three Global Powers and Spheres of Influence

🎦 21:21-27:54⏩
Jonathan discusses a New York Times article on the concept of an "age of empires," suggesting Trump envisions a world where the United States, China, and Russia each dominate their own spheres of influence, aiming to carve up the world and dismantle the unity of the EU. Monica Duffy Toft of Tufts University notes that these leaders are striving for an "imaginary past" of grandeur. While some analysts argue Trump's actions aren't strategic, Jonathan contends that figures around him, such as Steve Bannon, J.D. Vance, Russell Ford, Stephen Miller, and the Heritage Foundation, are indeed thinking in imperial terms.

• Ukraine's Role: Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine aligns with this concept. He has proposed settlement terms that would largely benefit Russia, including US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and acknowledgement of Russian occupation of large areas of Eastern Ukraine. He even appeared to back off his demand for an immediate ceasefire. Simultaneously, he secured an agreement for American companies to access Ukraine's minerals.
• European and Asian Concerns: Trump's praise of Putin and Russia, combined with his skepticism towards NATO, has heightened anxieties among European nations about a potentially waning US presence. Similar concerns exist regarding Taiwan and Asian security, with questions arising about whether Trump would waver on US arms support for Taiwan, mandated by Congress, to strike a deal with China. Elbridge Colby, former Undersecretary of Defence for Policy, notably stated that Taiwan was "not an existential interest for the United States."

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Jonathan's Frustration with Trump and Zelensky's Efforts

🎦 27:55-28:47⏩
Jonathan expresses his profound frustration with Donald Trump, especially regarding his stance on Ukraine. He notes how Trump's criticisms of Putin often pivot to attacks on President Zelensky. Jonathan asserts that Zelensky has already offered Trump everything he's asked for – an immediate ceasefire, willingness for direct talks, and even the rare earth minerals deal – yet Trump continues to "both sides" the issue. He believes Trump's actions signal to Putin that he "can get away with it and will push and push and push." Jonathan admits to "freaking hate[ing]" Trump for his "lack of knowledge of Ukraine," "complete disdain" for the country and its people, and his apparent lack of understanding of geopolitics, culture, and history. He describes Trump as a "narcissist, a self-absorbed tool bag" being "used by Putin and the Kremlin," concluding that Trump's "weakness" is preventing the final economic blow to Russia.

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Zelensky's Attendance at G7, EU, and NATO Summits

🎦 28:47-29:06⏩
President Zelensky confirmed he will attend the G7 and EU summits. Regarding the NATO summit in The Hague, he stated that Mark Rutte (likely referring to the Dutch Prime Minister) wants to see him there, but he needs to understand the format of Ukraine's representation, especially given that Trump is expected to attend and reportedly prefers Zelensky not to be there.

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New Report Suggests Russia Responsible for Nord Stream Sabotage

🎦 29:06-29:56⏩
Jonathan shares news of a new multi-year research effort by the University of Pennsylvania, led by Dr. Benjamin L. Schmidt, which found it "probable" (55-75% likelihood) that Russia was involved in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. This conclusion is supported by observations that a Russian special purpose vessel, the SS-750, with a submarine, was seen over the future explosion site four days before the incident.

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German Raids on Pro-Russian Association Suspected of Supporting Separatists

🎦 29:57-30:59⏩
Heavily armed German police and forces raided the headquarters of a pro-Russian German association in Königs Wüsterhausen, and searched several flats in Berlin and Brandenburg. The association is suspected of supporting terrorist organisations abroad by collecting money and supplies for pro-Russian separatist forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (DPR) between 2015 and 2022. No arrests were made during the searches, as two individuals with warrants (a 74-year-old male and a 52-year-old female) are reportedly in Russia. Jonathan commends Friedrich Merz for his "exceptionally strong" stance on Russia.

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Latvia Urges EU to Shut Visa Door to Russians

🎦 31:02-31:16⏩
The Latvian interior and foreign ministers have urged the EU to halt all new visas for Russian nationals, citing security risks as grounds. Jonathan agrees with this call.

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UK Strategic Defence Review and New Cyber and Electromagnetic Command

🎦 31:17-33:57⏩
Jonathan reports on the UK's ongoing strategic defence review, which aims to adapt the armed forces to modern warfare, taking lessons from the war in Ukraine. The UK has announced a new Cyber and Electromagnetic (EM) Command, which will lead defensive cyber operations for military networks and coordinate offensive ones with the National Cyber Force (NCF), established in 2020. The command will also harness armed forces' expertise in electromagnetic warfare, such as degrading command and control, jamming signals, and intercepting communications—skills vital in Ukraine. Additionally, a new "digital targeting web" by 2027 aims for greater integration across domains, allowing a threat identified by a ship's sensor to be disabled by an F-35 aircraft, drone, or cyber operation. While acknowledging some aspects are older concepts, Jonathan praises the UK's strong focus on this, contrasting it with the Trump administration's scaled-back cyber efforts.

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The "Full Spectrum Failure" of Democracy and the Need for Action

🎦 33:58-37:24⏩
Jonathan shares a powerful thread from Elliot Higgins of Bellingcat on "disordered discourse." Higgins argues that democracy is being "suffocated by noise, lies, distraction and systems that profit from confusion," leading to a "full spectrum failure" by design. He highlights how platforms feed content that keeps people scrolling, institutions avoid accountability, and "bad actors flood the zone." The result is a society unable to think critically, act together, or "hold the line." Higgins stresses that this isn't inevitable and that democracy can be rebuilt through "verified truth, real deliberation and actual accountability." He calls for individuals to "take command" and "reforge" democracy by investigating corruption, teaching critical thinking, challenging lies, demanding answers, and organising change, as "politicians, platforms, the experts, they're not coming to save us." Jonathan wholeheartedly agrees, particularly noting the urgency given the rise of sophisticated AI-generated content (like Google's VO3 AI), which makes it increasingly difficult to distinguish truth from falsehood. He concludes with a Frank Zappa quote about the "ugly MFers" outnumbering the "cute people," interpreting it as a call for collective action.

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Call for Regulation of Social Media and Criminalising Bots

🎦 37:27-39:34⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's proposal for governments to criminalise social media bots and hold platform owners like Elon Musk accountable. Perpetua suggests draconian measures like requiring in-person account creation with passport verification to eliminate bots. Jonathan admits he is "kind of agreeing with this" and calls for "massive and really far-reaching regulation" on social media. He views social media as a "battlefield" where state actors and nefarious individuals exploit "freedom of speech" to manipulate the public, citing how 58% of profiles for a Portuguese political party (Chega) were false. He argues that without regulation, the situation will worsen, especially with advanced AI-generated videos making it impossible to discern truth from falsehood, and states that help is needed from the state as tech leaders like Musk and Zuckerberg are not acting in the public interest.

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Russia Banned from 2026 Winter Olympics & King Charles III's Speech

🎦 39:37-42:01⏩
Jonathan shares two miscellaneous updates. Firstly, Russia has been banned from the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, which he considers good news. Secondly, he shares part of King Charles III's speech at the opening of the Canadian Parliament. Jonathan praises the King's fluent use of French, his homage to First Nations peoples, and what he perceives as "veiled statements about Trump," particularly the line "the true North is indeed strong and free." Jonathan interprets this as a subtle endorsement of a free, independent Canada, rather than a "51st state Canada" under US influence. He finds the juxtaposition of the British monarch extolling democracy while the US President (Trump) appears to favour autocracy a "weird switcheroo."

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Russian Economy Overview and Challenges

🎦 42:02-59:20⏩
Jonathan provides a comprehensive overview of the Russian economy, stating that "underneath the bonnet, things are not looking good."

• Current Situation: Thailand's largest bank has begun blocking Russian accounts. Despite some reduction, EU countries still enable Russia to earn significant revenue from energy exports (e.g., €2 billion in February alone), which is more than Europe spends on military aid to Ukraine. This is attributed to legal contracts and reluctance from countries like Hungary and Slovakia.
• Oil and Budget Deficit: Russia's oil export revenues have fallen to a two-year low. The Russian Duma approved a three-fold increase in the 2025 budget deficit, expecting further increases that will deplete reserves.
• Economic Slowdown: The government warns of a sharp economic deterioration, with forecasts appearing "overly optimistic." GDP growth significantly slowed in Q1, with industrial growth, retail turnover, and wholesale trade all declining, indicating a potential "technical recession." Declining freight traffic on Russian railways and a low PMI index further confirm this.
• Structural Issues: Jonathan highlights structural problems, particularly with Russian railways, which suffer from reduced demand due to the slowing economy and reduced supply due to underfunding and other issues. This "race to the bottom" will strangle any future economic recovery.
• Prune60's Analysis: Jonathan references Prune60's detailed thread on the Russian economy, highlighting that Russia is experiencing stagflation (stagnation and inflation simultaneously), a phenomenon once thought impossible. Prune60 describes the Russian government as an "unchecked predator" in its own economy, constantly trying to manipulate data to appear better than it is.
  • Phases of Economic Strain:
  • Phase 1: Using existing stockpiles (minimal cost).
  • Phase 2: Investing in new military goods (e.g., drones from Iran, ammunition from North Korea), leading to a search for funds.
  • Phase 3: Secondary sanctions increase costs, reduce quality, and lengthen acquisition times.
  • Phase 4 (Current): Affected by "Biden's farewell sanctions and Trump," with oil and gas revenues diving and non-oil/gas sectors already heavily taxed. The war chest is "basically tapped."
  • Ruble Dilemma: Russia faces a dilemma: keep the ruble strong to contain high costs of imported food (and manipulate official inflation numbers) or weaken it to boost oil and gas revenues. They cannot do both. The current strong ruble could backfire. Russian agriculture is in trouble, increasing reliance on food imports, which are a large portion of the average Russian's budget.
• Zelensky's Forecast & Jonathan's Outrage: President Zelensky predicts Russia will feel the true impact of Western sanctions by summer 2026. Jonathan expresses extreme anger and frustration with Donald Trump, whom he "freaking hates" for his detrimental actions toward Ukraine, his "lack of knowledge," and his "complete disdain." He views Trump as a "narcissist, a self-absorbed tool bag" being "used by Putin," preventing the "final nails in the coffin of the Russian economy" by doing "everything he can to try and keep it alive."
• Impact of Drone Attacks: Recent drone attacks caused "mayhem" at Russian airports, leading to numerous flight delays and cancellations, suggesting widespread disruption.
• Aviation Industry & Sanctions: Russia's largest private airline cancelled flights due to a lack of spare parts, raising safety concerns, though the state-owned Aeroflot likely receives priority for limited resources. Samsung Display also ceased sourcing critical metals from Russia in 2024, driven by the risk of secondary sanctions.

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Wrap up

🎦 59:21-59:23⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, signs off, and bids farewell to the viewers.

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