Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Every time something like this happens, go to your nearest person that's giving you the pro-Russian point of view and say, is this what you are defending? Really openly, are you defending this? Because if you're defending this, you're wrong. You are morally wrong."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts with the Ukraine general staff figures for Russian losses, noting an uptick in liquidated personnel with almost 1,000 lost the previous day. Artillery and multiple launch rocket system losses were the lowest in months at only 6 and 1 respectively. He speculates this could reflect strikes behind Russian lines with Storm Shadow missiles.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Oryx Figures
Looking at the Oryx figures for visually confirmed losses, there seems to be a trend emerging where the Russians are losing more equipment than the Ukrainians. This includes tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, howitzers, trucks and a Strela surface-to-air missile system. The total losses were 70 for Russia vs 29 for Ukraine.
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Russian Air Force Losses
In addition to Ukrainian actions, the Russian Air Force lost between 5-8 airframes during the Wagner mutiny. An IL-22 was shot down by Wagner with the loss of 10 crew members including high-ranking officers, representing a significant loss of expertise and training. A K-52 helicopter was also reportedly shot down near Primorsk, which Jonathan finds surprising given the location and Ukrainian air defence capabilities in the area.
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Overnight Missile Hits
- 6 Shahed drones were shot down overnight out of an unknown total sent by Russia
- Missile hits reported in:
- Kadivka/Alchevsk (Luhansk Oblast) - area known for hosting Kadyrovites who have been bombed multiple times with heavy casualties
- Primorsk - 3 Storm Shadow missiles hit the area
- Melitopol - ambulances and Kamaz trucks seen moving to pick up the dead in northern suburbs after explosions
- Mykolaivka and Tokmak also reported hit
Kramatorsk Attack
The biggest news is the deliberate Russian targeting of Ukrainian non-combatants in Kramatorsk. A pizza restaurant was hit resulting in at least 8 deaths, including two 14-year-old sisters and a 17-year-old girl, with 56 injured. The attack has provoked intense international rhetoric condemning Russia. Jonathan passionately argues this is unacceptable and challenges anyone defending the Russian invasion in light of such attacks.
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Lack of Russian Trolls
Jonathan notes a distinct lack of Russian trolls on his video threads yesterday, speculating this could be related to the Wagner mutiny and Prigozhin's troll farm operations being disrupted.
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US Military Aid Package
The US announced a $500 million military aid package for Ukraine including munitions for HIMARS, Patriot and Stinger systems, 30 Bradleys, 25 Strykers, TOW and Javelin missiles, HARM rockets, precision aerial munitions, night vision devices and other equipment. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers is also calling on President Biden to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine.
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Other Military Aid
- Lithuania is transferring two NASAMS air defence system launchers to Ukraine
- The Czech Republic has promised more unspecified military equipment
- The Netherlands signed a €111 million contract with Belgian firm FN Herstal for 7.62mm machine guns
- The Netherlands is also funding 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks to be delivered to Ukraine by Rheinmetall during 2024
- Hensoldt will deliver 4 more TRML-4D radars to Ukraine for use with air defence systems
- Croatia has completed delivery of 14 Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine
Frontline Updates
- Heavy fighting reported west of Staromaiorske with Ukrainian forces trying to breakthrough towards Priyutne
- Progress made by Ukrainians in fields east of Urozhaine
- In the Bakhmut area, the 80th Air Assault Brigade progressed 1km into a forest strip, putting pressure on Klishchiivka
- Ukrainians have reached a dam near Kurdiumivka and are on the outskirts of Krymske
- In the Kherson area, Ukraine has expanded its bridgehead with ~120 personnel, despite Russian shelling. The use of S-300s and electronic warfare is limiting Russian drone and aviation operations. Pontoon crossing equipment has been noticed.
Geopolitics
- US Treasury sanctioning companies linked to Wagner Group's African mining operations
- Advisor to President Zelensky strongly criticised Hungarian PM Orban's comments that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation and cannot win the war
- Chinese ambassador to the EU said he sees no reason why Ukraine cannot regain its 1991 borders, a blow to Russia
- Some Chinese companies have paused shipments to Russia after the Wagner mutiny, exposing risks for China's ties to Russia. Analysts suggest China may need to adjust its position and decisively side with Ukraine as the likely victor to protect its broader economic interests with the West.
Wrap up
Jonathan signs off hoping the update has been useful and informative for viewers.
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