Ukraine War Update EXTRA: HIMARS, Mobiks, Saturation Attack, & Musk
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
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"I heard that even my worst critics remain on Twitter because that's what free speech means." - Elon Musk tweet from April 2022 that has not aged well
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts with a tongue-in-cheek critique from Darth Putin about the difference between Russia acquiring Iranian drones (offensive) and Ukraine getting Patriot missiles (defensive). Darth Putin says threatening to defend against "peaceful" Iranian drones used to "denazify hospitals and playgrounds" is a dangerous escalation.
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Saturation Attack on Ukraine
- In the latest saturation attack, 60 out of 76 Russian missiles (79%) were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. This is a slight dip from previous attacks.
- The missiles included air-launched Kh-101s and Kh-555s, and sea-based Kalibr missiles.
Airburst Munitions
- Jonathan shows footage of a trench network near Bakhmut hit by Ukrainian artillery with mortar and airburst shells, killing 17 out of 35-40 soldiers.
- Airburst munitions explode in the air above the target, distributing energy and fragments more evenly over a wider area compared to ground burst. They are effective against infantry in trenches.
- Examples include the VOG-25P 40mm grenade which jumps up 1.5m before detonating the main charge.
Escalation and Weapons for Ukraine
- Jonathan argues in his latest article "He Shouted Too Early: The Impotence of Putin" that Putin's only escalation path now is nuclear, which is unlikely. Therefore, the West should give Ukraine more advanced weapons like the Patriot missile system.
- The UK Defence Secretary has not ruled out providing the Storm Shadow cruise missile to Ukraine. Other options include the GLSDB (ground launched small diameter bomb) with 150km range.
- Ukraine needs to go on the offensive again like in Kharkiv and Kherson, and requires the weapons to enable that, especially with the prospect of 200,000 mobilized Russian troops being deployed in the new year.
British Special Forces in Ukraine
- Russian source Rybar compiled instances of UK special forces involvement in Ukraine, including:
- Royal Marines supporting "discrete operations in a hugely sensitive environment"
- SAS soldiers training Ukrainian ATGM crews in Kyiv
- British military advisors with the Zaporizhzhia governor
- Training Ukrainian recon groups in Kharkiv to carry out sabotage in Russia
- A mercenary from the International Legion also confirmed British special forces participation in combat in June.
Intercepted Call from Russian Soldier
- An intercepted call from a mobilized Russian soldier to his mother describes dire conditions:
- Their position is a "meat grinder" with holes/trenches on all sides
- Command refused to withdraw them, saying to stand until the end
- They are shipping out 17 dead mobiks per day in "packages"
- No clothes, wet and dirty, no water for 3 days
- Mobilized officer ordered them to take an "elevator" (unclear term) guarded by 3 machine guns, 17 killed, then officer ran away
Effectiveness of HIMARS
- Jonathan emphasizes the ongoing effectiveness and importance of HIMARS in striking Russian targets every day and night for months, including:
- 5 control points, 4 personnel areas, 6 artillery positions, 2 ammo warehouses, 1 fuel depot in a single day
- 22 strikes on personnel and equipment concentrations by Ukrainian Air Force in one day
- Strike on Tokmak near Melitopol destroyed 10+ pieces of equipment and injured 180+ Russian soldiers
- This is painful for Russian logistics and morale. HIMARS remain the most successful aspect of the war for Ukraine and a game-changer.
Elon Musk and Twitter
- Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk as a hypocrite regarding free speech:
- Musk calls himself a "free speech absolutist" but banned an account tracking his private jet using public data
- Changed Twitter rules to prohibit publishing live location info, impacting OSINT accounts doing geolocation
- Suspended many journalists critical of him, contradicting his claim that he allows his "worst critics" to remain on Twitter
- Jonathan argues true free speech absolutism is untenable and everyone draws a line somewhere
- Musk seems to want free speech for himself to insult others (e.g. calling British cave diver a "pedo") but not for journalists who criticize him
- The suspensions impact OSINT work on the Ukraine war. Jonathan needs Twitter for his job collating info but wishes Musk hadn't taken over.
Wrap up
Jonathan plugs his recent article "He Shouted Too Early: The Impotence of Putin" about the lack of escalation risk if the West provides Ukraine more weapons now. He asks viewers to like, subscribe, share and check out other ways to support the channel.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The intercepted call from the Russian soldier mentions being ordered to "take the elevator" which seems out of context for their field position in trenches. I'm not sure what this is referring to.
Some of the specific journalists suspended by Elon Musk on Twitter are referred to only by their Twitter handles which I don't know the real names for.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Read through transcript to get overall sense of content and topics covered
Identify main topics and sections of the video
Summarize each topic, keeping key points, insights, opinions from Jonathan
Use bullet points to break up summary into easily readable sections
Bold key terms, place names, etc.
Ensure British English spelling and grammar is used
Include introduction and wrap up sections
Select most profound or impactful quote from the video
Review summary to ensure all key topics are covered and summary flows well
Format using provided XML tags
