Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News, Max Boot on Trump

"The Kremlin's intervention in the 2016 US election, which might have helped swing a contest that Trump won by razor-thin margin, could turn out to be one of the most consequential covert actions in history - it might allow the Russian dictator to win in Washington a victory that his troops couldn't win on the battlefield"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:13⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, describing it as the third part of the day's Ukraine war update, following on from the breaking news piece and the first part of the main update. He notes that this video will focus on military equipment, aid and geopolitical news.

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Jonathan corrects CNN reporting on Russian artillery ammunition production

🎦 00:13-03:12⏩

Jonathan addresses what he describes as inaccuracies in recent CNN reporting. Citing analysis by Jakub Yanovsky of Oryx and Warspotting, he highlights that whilst CNN's figures for Western ammunition production refer to 155mm shells only, figures given for Russian production encompass all calibers. Jonathan argues that this makes the situation appear worse than it is. He also points out that Western artillery is more accurate, requiring fewer rounds to achieve the same effect. Further, Jonathan notes that NATO artillery ammunition production will narrow the gap by late 2024 and is likely to match Russian production by late 2025 if the US Congress approves additional funding.

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US has sent $10bn of weapons to Ukraine it can't replace due to partisan gridlock

🎦 03:12-04:56⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent report from Lara Seligman, which revealed that the US Department of Defense has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it currently lacks the budget to replace, due to political gridlock in Congress. He argues that the situation, which stems from partisan disagreements over aid to Ukraine, has created a national security risk for the US. Jonathan also highlights that much of the aid given to Ukraine is ultimately used to upgrade existing US stockpiles, rather than being sent directly to the Ukrainian military.

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NATO involvement in Ukraine

🎦 04:57-09:11⏩

Jonathan discusses Emmanuel Macron's recent comments about the potential for Western troops to be deployed to Ukraine in non-combat roles. He expresses frustration at the lack of support for Macron's position within NATO, citing comments by Jens Stoltenberg, in which the NATO Secretary General reiterated that the alliance has no plans to send troops to Ukraine. Contradicting Stoltenberg's statement, Jonathan points out that it is already common knowledge that troops from NATO member states are present in Ukraine, carrying out certain tasks. Supporting Macron's position, he argues that NATO has the authority to change its own rules regarding the deployment of troops, adding that it is ultimately up to the alliance to define the limits of non-combat engagement.

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Olaf Scholz refuses to budge on Taurus missiles

🎦 09:12-11:11⏩

Jonathan discusses Olaf Scholz's ongoing refusal to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. He voices the opinion that Scholz's stance is damaging his political standing both domestically and internationally, arguing that the German Chancellor has undermined the positive impact of Germany's support for Ukraine. However, he notes that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has expressed support for the transfer of missiles.

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Russians are reusing artillery shells signed by donors

🎦 11:11-13:32⏩

Jonathan discusses the story, originally shared with him by Chris Jones, that some of the artillery shells purportedly being signed for donations and sent to be used against the Ukrainian military appear to be the same shell. Citing evidence shared by LaserPig on Twitter, he speculates that those running the scheme are simply repainting the same shells multiple times to maximise their profits. Jonathan notes that he previously interviewed volunteers signing shells to raise money for the Ukrainian military.

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Ukraine meets requirements to approve the framework for EU accession negotiations

🎦 13:32-14:45⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine has fulfilled the four recommendations set out by the European Commission in order to approve the framework for EU accession negotiations. He notes that this follows a series of positive steps taken by the Ukrainian government, including increased staffing at the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Whilst acknowledging that full EU accession is likely some way off, Jonathan praises the Ukrainian government for its efforts to meet the necessary requirements.

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Scholz and Stoltenberg criticise the Pope

🎦 14:45-15:30⏩

Jonathan discusses the ongoing reaction to Pope Francis's call for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, noting that the pontiff's comments have been met with criticism from Olaf Scholz and Jens Stoltenberg, amongst others. He describes the Pope's intervention as unhelpful and argues that the comments stem from flawed thinking.

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France hit by Russian cyberattacks

🎦 15:30-16:56⏩

Jonathan reports that many public services in France have been subjected to cyberattacks of unprecedented intensity. Citing the Prime Minister's office, he speculates that the attacks are retaliation for Macron's recent, robust defence of Ukraine, including his suggestion that the deployment of Western troops should not be ruled out. Jonathan goes on to argue that attacks targeting civilian infrastructure such as hospitals should be considered an act of war in themselves, as they can lead to loss of life just as readily as kinetic military action.

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Macron delays visit to Kyiv

🎦 16:56-19:14⏩

Jonathan discusses reports that Macron has delayed a planned visit to Kyiv. Whilst acknowledging that some commentators have cited security concerns, he notes that this reasoning has been disputed. Citing a French diplomat, Jonathan suggests that Macron wishes to take time to coordinate with allies and ensure that his visit will yield tangible results, rather than simply rushing through a meeting.

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Polish protesters and police block Ukrainian buses at the border

🎦 19:14-20:01⏩

Jonathan reports that protesters and police in Poland are preventing passenger buses from travelling between Ukraine and Poland. Citing Ukraine's Minister of Infrastructure, Oleksandr Kubrakov, he describes the situation as unacceptable, adding that Ukrainian passengers are being held without explanation. He notes that attempts are underway to resolve the situation.

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Russia opens polling stations in Transnistria

🎦 20:01-20:28⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia is opening polling stations in Transnistria. He draws parallels with the situation in Crimea, questioning whether the international community will take steps to prevent Russia from pursuing its objectives in the region.

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Trump's "secret plan" to end the war

🎦 20:29-22:56⏩

Jonathan discusses Viktor Orban's recent claim that Donald Trump has a "secret plan" to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He states that this plan, which appears to amount to withdrawing financial and military support from Ukraine, is being met with glee by the Russian government. Jonathan argues that Orban's comments, coupled with the actions of the Republican-controlled House, show that Trump is already having a significant, negative impact on the US's ability to support Ukraine.

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Max Boot: "Trump isn’t just pro-Russia, he’s also anti-Ukraine"

🎦 22:56-33:57⏩

Jonathan discusses an article by Max Boot, which argues that Trump is not simply pro-Russia, but also actively anti-Ukraine. He cites a number of examples from Boot's piece, beginning with Trump's praise for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and culminating in the former president's refusal to explicitly state that he wants Ukraine to win the war. Jonathan goes on to highlight the pro-Russian views expressed by Donald Trump Jr, arguing that the younger Trump's opinions are a good indicator of his father's true feelings. He then recounts Trump's attempts to solicit damaging information on Joe Biden from the Ukrainian government, noting that these actions led to his first impeachment. Jonathan also cites anecdotes from John Bolton, Fiona Hill and Malcolm Turnbull, which highlight Trump's positive view of Putin and his willingness to accept Russian propaganda at face value. He concludes by suggesting that Trump may see a Ukrainian defeat as politically advantageous, as it would allow him to attack the Biden administration.

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Robert De Niro criticises the Republican Party for not standing up to Trump

🎦 33:57-36:02⏩

Jonathan plays a clip of Robert De Niro criticising the Republican Party for its failure to stand up to Donald Trump. In the clip, the actor argues that many Republican voters have been fooled by Trump and describes the former president as a "malignant narcissist" and a "sociopath". Jonathan expresses agreement with De Niro's assessment, arguing that Trump's actions are dangerous.

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Poland's president and prime minister visit Washington

🎦 36:02-38:37⏩

Jonathan reports that the president and prime minister of Poland are in Washington for talks with Joe Biden. He uses this as an opportunity to compare and contrast the records of Trump and Biden, arguing that whilst many of his viewers may disagree with aspects of Biden's presidency, such as his record on immigration, the current president has achieved a great deal for working Americans and is a fundamentally different prospect to his predecessor. He also notes that, contrary to the claims of Trump and his supporters, oil production in the US has actually increased under Biden.

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Wrap up

🎦 38:37-39:26⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by acknowledging that it has focused heavily on US politics, but reiterating that he considers this unavoidable, as the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be hugely significant for Ukraine. He argues that his channel's focus on Ukraine makes it necessary for him to discuss the potential implications of a second Trump presidency.

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