Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"And actually, you need to take, we need to take that into account. So the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development alone has provided medical support for more than 3 million Ukrainians since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics video. Today's video is the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for February 2nd, 2024. He has a live stream coming up with Daniela from Torchny to discuss FPV drones and other related topics.
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Rebar's Disinformation Regarding the Ivanovet's Ship Attack
🎦 00:21-04:16⏩
Jonathan wants to revisit the topic of Rebar's rhetoric regarding the attack on the Ivanovet's ship. This refers to a pro-Russian Telegram channel with reported links to the Russian MoD. He highlights Rebar's claims made before the release of Ukrainian footage showing the ship sinking, which contradict the events depicted in the footage. Rebar claimed that four out of nine Ukrainian naval drones were destroyed by Russian sailors at the entrance to Lake Donuzlav, while another exploded near the boat causing minimal damage. The remaining four were purportedly pursued and destroyed by helicopters and fighter jets. Jonathan contrasts this with the footage released by the Ukrainians, which clearly shows the ship being hit by two drones and subsequently exploding. He questions the accuracy of Rebar's claims and those of other pro-Kremlin voices. He argues that this example illustrates the issue with Russian disinformation campaigns.
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EU Aid Package for Ukraine (£4.5bn to be paid in March)
🎦 04:17-07:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the recently approved €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. He’s pleased to announce that the package was approved unanimously – even Viktor Orbán voted in favour. The first payment of €4.5 billion is expected in March.
- He acknowledges the White House’s statement emphasizing that EU funding should not be a substitute for US leadership and military assistance. Jonathan agrees with this sentiment and believes it's a crucial message to send to US lawmakers who might use the EU aid package to justify reducing US contributions.
- He analyses the EU package in detail, highlighting that while €50 billion is a significant amount, it is spread over four years and represents a relatively small percentage of the EU’s GDP.
- Jonathan cites a discussion on the Ukraine Latest podcast, which emphasized the long-term and sustainable nature of the EU aid, contrasting it with the more immediate focus of US aid. He believes that the EU package provides a foundation for long-term assistance to Ukraine, which can be supplemented by bilateral agreements and additional aid packages.
- He corrects a viewer comment about shell provision, pointing out that European countries have collectively delivered at least 600,000 out of a pledged 1 million artillery shells.
Ukrainian Drone Production Update
🎦 07:51-11:22⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian drone production. He believes that Ukraine is likely outpacing Russia in drone procurement and deployment but that Ukrainian information sources are downplaying their capabilities as part of a psychological operation to incentivize international aid. He suspects that official figures don't fully capture the extent of drone procurement, as many units receive drones through private fundraising efforts.
- Jonathan highlights information from Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, stating that 67 drone models received codification in 2023, with 58 receiving state contracts. He notes that over 200 Ukrainian companies are now involved in drone production, adding to state manufacturers and international partners.
- He references a claim suggesting that Ukraine is producing more drones than it can afford, implying that production capabilities are robust.
New "Johnny" Detonators for PTM-3 Mines
🎦 11:22-12:04⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from Russian sources, including military bloggers, about modernized PTM-3 mines being deployed by Ukrainian forces in the Kreminna area. The mines are equipped with a new detonator nicknamed “Johnny." He describes the detonator, explaining how it uses gyroscopes, accelerometers, and magnetometers to trigger the mine upon impact or movement. Jonathan also notes that the detonator is sensitive enough to be triggered by nearby vehicles or personnel carrying weapons or wearing armor.
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Correction: UK 155mm Shell Production
🎦 12:04-15:55⏩
Jonathan addresses another viewer comment from 'Richard,' this time regarding artillery shell contributions. He refutes the claim that Britain has not supplied any 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine. Citing a January article from the UK Defence Journal, he states that the UK has provided over 300,000 artillery rounds, including 155mm shells and ex-Soviet caliber ammunition. He emphasizes that the UK has been actively increasing its production capacity of 155mm shells, citing a Ministry of Defence contract with BAE Systems to increase production eightfold. Jonathan expresses his frustration with misinformation, urging viewers to ensure the accuracy of their claims, especially when criticizing contributions to Ukraine. He acknowledges that while BAE Systems was contracted in June 2023, which he personally considers late, the UK has nonetheless been active in ammunition provision.
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German Medical Support for Ukraine
🎦 15:57-18:45⏩
Jonathan highlights the often-overlooked aspect of non-military aid to Ukraine, focusing on Germany’s contributions. He reports that the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development has provided medical support to over 3 million Ukrainians since the beginning of the invasion.
- Jonathan points out that countries closer to Ukraine have naturally faced greater pressure to provide support for refugees, including healthcare, education, and housing. He suggests that these less tangible forms of aid are often neglected in assessments of contributions.
- He reiterates the importance of considering the full range of assistance provided by different countries and avoids making direct comparisons based solely on military aid.
EU Shell Production Update
🎦 19:24-20:05⏩
Jonathan cites comments by Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, acknowledging that while the EU fell short of its ambitious target to produce one million artillery shells for Ukraine, they successfully tripled their production output. He encourages focusing on the positive trend of increased production rather than dwelling on the missed target.
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Rheinmetall Acquires Romanian Car Manufacturer to Support Ukraine
🎦 20:05-20:47⏩
Jonathan reports that the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has acquired a controlling stake in the Romanian car manufacturer Automecanica Medias. The acquisition will focus on servicing combat vehicles for Ukraine and bolstering logistical support for the Ukrainian war effort. He views this as a positive development given Romania’s proximity to Ukraine, allowing for efficient repair and maintenance of Ukrainian military equipment.
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Other Military Aid Updates (Sweden, Australia)
🎦 20:47-23:41⏩
Jonathan provides a brief update on various military aid developments:
- Sweden: Images surface of a Swedish Scania P3500 mine-clearing vehicle in Ukrainian service. Jonathan believes this is a positive development, highlighting the importance of demining efforts in Ukraine.
- Australia: Jonathan discusses reports that Ukraine declined a proposed transfer of 41 decommissioned F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets from Australia. While he acknowledges that the Hornets' robust design would be suitable for Ukraine’s damaged runways, he understands Ukraine’s logistical concerns about operating two different types of foreign fighter jets alongside their existing fleet.
US Facilitates Transfer of Russian Military Equipment from Ecuador to Ukraine
🎦 23:42-25:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the US's role in facilitating the transfer of Russian military equipment to Ukraine. He refers to previous instances involving Turkey, Morocco, and the UAE, where the US has employed various mechanisms to acquire and transfer Soviet-era equipment to Ukraine. He notes a report indicating that Ecuador will send Russian military equipment to the US, which will likely be redirected to Ukraine. While Russia has condemned Ecuador’s decision, framing it as a breach of contract driven by external pressure, Jonathan anticipates that the equipment will ultimately bolster Ukrainian forces.
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Russia to Raise Draft Age to 50 for New Citizens
🎦 25:23-26:44⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian lawmakers are considering raising the draft age to 50 for migrants who have recently acquired Russian citizenship. The rationale behind this proposal is to prevent individuals from delaying citizenship until they are past the current conscription age. He sees this as further evidence of Russia's desperation to replenish its depleted forces in Ukraine, even if it means coercing foreign nationals into military service. Jonathan jokes that recent recipients of Russian citizenship, such as US boxer Kevin Johnson, may soon find themselves on the front lines.
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Geopolitical Ramifications of the EU Aid Package
🎦 26:46-29:15⏩
Jonathan delves into the geopolitical implications of the EU’s €50 billion aid package for Ukraine, emphasizing the unanimous support it received from all 27 member states. He suggests that Viktor Orbán's decision to approve the package without concessions highlights a shift in the European political landscape, with even pro-Kremlin leaders feeling pressured to support Ukraine publicly. He also points out that the EU's decision to finance part of the aid package using frozen Russian assets demonstrates a hardening stance against Russia.
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Hungary's Failed Attempts at Concessions and EU Criticism
🎦 29:15-30:12⏩
Jonathan notes that despite Orbán’s attempts to secure concessions, such as annual veto power over EU aid to Ukraine or the unfreezing of EU funds previously withheld due to Hungary's democratic backsliding, he ultimately voted in favor of the aid package without achieving either goal. He finds Orbán's decision intriguing and ponders what factors might have influenced his vote. He also highlights criticism directed at Orbán from pro-European figures like Donald Tusk, who has been a vocal opponent of Orbán's policies.
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US Pressure on Hungary over Sweden's NATO Accession
🎦 30:12-31:40⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing US pressure on Hungary to approve Sweden’s accession to NATO. He explains that senior US lawmakers have urged Hungary to ratify Sweden’s membership, following Turkey’s recent approval. These lawmakers have warned that Hungary risks jeopardizing its relationship with the US, even suggesting potential consequences for the visa waiver program. Jonathan notes that while Hungary has fostered closer ties with the US in recent years, particularly within conservative circles, this statement from US lawmakers reflects a firm stance on the issue of NATO expansion.
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Canada and Ukraine Agree on Security Guarantees
🎦 31:40-32:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine and Canada have reached an agreement on long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. He emphasizes Canada’s commitment to providing continuous and reliable assistance to Ukraine, even after the war with Russia ends, recognizing the ongoing threat posed by Russia.
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US Senate Vote on Ukraine Aid Expected Next Week
🎦 32:06-34:47⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the upcoming US Senate vote on the National Security Supplemental Bill, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as funding for border security. While Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated that the vote will take place next week, it remains unclear whether the bill will pass in the House of Representatives. Jonathan speculates that Republicans, who have been critical of the Biden administration's handling of immigration, may attempt to leverage the bill to advance their own border security priorities. He suggests that while Republicans may be receptive to approving aid for Ukraine, they might be reluctant to support any measures that could be perceived as victories for the Democrats, especially in an election year.
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Russian Interference in German Politics (AFD and FSB Links)
🎦 34:47-37:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a concerning report alleging that members of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has seen a recent surge in popularity, have been coordinating with Russian intelligence services to undermine German military support for Ukraine. According to the report, AfD deputies have been receiving instructions from FSB handlers, even going as far as filing lawsuits to halt military aid to Ukraine. Jonathan expresses concern over the extent of Russian influence within European political systems. He suggests that Russia is actively attempting to exploit political divisions within Germany and other European countries to weaken support for Ukraine and advance its own interests.
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Turkish Banks Close Accounts of Russian Companies
🎦 37:06-37:51⏩
Jonathan reports that Turkish banks have started closing the accounts of Russian companies and individuals doing business in Turkey, marking a shift from their previous approach. Additionally, some banks have implemented stricter requirements for Russians seeking to open new accounts. He speculates that this change might be influenced by US pressure, linking it to Turkey's desire to acquire F-16 fighter jets and potentially rejoin the F-35 program.
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Russia Reduces Gasoline Exports
🎦 37:51-38:24⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has reduced gasoline exports to countries outside of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), citing unplanned refinery repairs. He connects this to the ongoing impact of fires and drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, suggesting that these disruptions are having a tangible impact on Russia’s ability to finance its war effort.
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Protests in Slovakia Against Proposed Judicial Reforms
🎦 38:24-39:25⏩
Jonathan reports on protests in Slovakia against the government's proposed judicial reforms. He highlights that over 60,000 people participated, demonstrating significant public opposition to Prime Minister Robert Fico's plans, which many perceive as an attempt to undermine judicial independence and consolidate power. He draws parallels between these proposed reforms and similar actions taken by Viktor Orbán in Hungary and the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland.
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Armenia Joins the Rome Statute
🎦 39:25-41:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Armenia has formally joined the Rome Statute, granting the International Criminal Court (ICC) jurisdiction to investigate and prosecute individuals for war crimes and other serious international crimes committed within its territory. He notes that this decision has significant implications, potentially allowing the ICC to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin if he enters Armenia. However, Jonathan believes that Armenia’s primary motivation might be to hold Azerbaijan accountable for alleged war crimes committed during their conflict, rather than targeting Putin directly. He sees this development as a sign of Armenia’s growing dissatisfaction with Russia, its traditional military ally.
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Wrap Up
🎦 41:17-41:54⏩
Jonathan expresses his apologies for the lengthy video, attributing it to the sheer volume of news he aims to cover. He believes it's essential to provide a comprehensive understanding of the ongoing events in Ukraine and thanks his audience for their continued support. He signs off by reminding viewers about his upcoming live stream with Daniela from Torchny.
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