Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's pretty crazy, so therefore you're less justified in believing it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update - the first part for 12th May 2024 and notes that there's quite a lot to get through.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses (11/05/2024)
🎦 00:17-01:57⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for 11/05/2024. He notes that the loss of 1,260 personnel is a huge number, likely a result of Russian attacks in a number of locations, including Kharkiv Oblast, Chasiv Yar, the northern Avdiivka salient (costly for the Russians) and Krasnohorivka. Jonathan observes that other figures are above average - 5 tanks, 22 armoured personnel vehicles, 30 artillery systems, 2 multiple launch rocket systems and one anti-aircraft warfare system.
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Russian Colonel Killed in Ukraine: Colonel Denis Lapin (03/05/2024)
🎦 02:05-03:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the "Russian Officers Killed in Ukraine" project has discovered an obituary for Colonel Denis Lapin - the son of Colonel General Alexander Lapin - who was killed by a HIMARS strike on 03/05/2024. Lapin Senior, commanded the Central Group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in 2022, and was also Deputy Commander of all occupation forces after which he was removed from his position and sent to defend Belgorod. Jonathan notes that Lapin Sr awarded his son the Order of Courage after a failed offensive in the Chernihiv region at the beginning of the invasion. Despite losing three quarters of the tank regiment entrusted to him near Chernihiv, Lapin Jnr continued to command the regiment. Jonathan notes with some irony that the obituary included the quote: "We need you more than your country and command, you were sent to zero and for us you are an exchange fund." Jonathan reflects that the Lapins are an infamous family, and that the death of the son is significant.
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Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade Capture High Ranking Russian POWs
🎦 03:38-05:11⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has captured two high ranking Russian POWs - a deputy company commander and the senior sergeant of the 752nd Regiment of the Russian forces - at the village of Rai-Oleksandrivka (northeastern axis in Luhansk Oblast) during a failed attempt to storm Ukrainian positions. Jonathan has noticed an increase in POW videos in recent weeks, and sees this as significant - he believes this could suggest that the increased number of POWs has resulted from an increase in failed Russian attacks, rather than successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian trenches. This leads him to conclude that Ukrainian forces are well dug in, and that the outcomes of the Russian attacks are not meeting their objectives.
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Russian Forces Using Unconventional Vehicles and Tactics (May 2024)
🎦 05:11-07:36⏩
A Ukrainian brigade commander told AFP that Russian forces have been using unusual tactics to advance, including off road motorcycles. These vehicles helped Russian forces breach Ukrainian positions during one advance due to their speed and manoeuvrability. Ukraine has so far managed to resist Russian attacks to the east and north of Chasiv Yar, but Russian troops have advanced from the south in recent days. The brigade commander noted that in order to take the city, Russian forces would have to cross a dried up canal (6m deep and 30m wide). The commander noted that Russian tactics are usually the same: aerial bombardment, artillery barrages and assaults with armoured vehicles and infantry. Jonathan notes that despite heavy losses, the Russians appear to be using motorcycles effectively. He goes on to discuss whether motorcycles would be susceptible to mines, and concludes that due to the variety of mine triggers (e.g. pressure, metal, sensors), they would be. He shows footage of a Russian motorcyclist in the Chasiv Yar area who has hit a mine which detonated, destroying the motorcycle.
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Ukrainian and Russian Air Losses
🎦 07:36-11:39⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been good news for Ukraine in terms of downing Russian aircraft in recent days, noting that Ukrainians have been desperate to get more effective in their defence of Ukrainian airspace. This is likely a result of increased air defence munitions stocks at the front. Jonathan notes that the use of Russian guided glide bombs is still problematic for the Ukrainians, so the downing of 3 Russian aircraft in the past week is great news. However, in a blow for Ukraine, Jonathan reports that Russian forces have, for the second time since the invasion, struck a forward helicopter landing and resupply site operated by the Ukrainian armed forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This time they used a 9K720 Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile. The strike appears to have caused the total destruction of one Mi-8 Hip transport helicopter, one Mi-24 Hind attack helicopter, one fuel truck and at least 12 Ukrainian service members. Two other Mi-24s and a fuel truck in the adjacent field may also have been damaged. Jonathan is extremely critical of the Ukrainians for allowing this to happen, given it has already happened once before - he believes that Ukrainian helicopters are being kept too close together, making them an easy target. Jonathan reads a comment from Jakub Janowski who believes that people in charge of the Ukrainian Air Force should be kicked out for not enforcing proper dispersion. Jonathan agrees, adding that War Vehicle Tracker has stated that two Mi-24s were destroyed in the strike, and that they were in the open field. War Vehicle Tracker believes that a D30SM UMPC bomb was used, rather than a ballistic missile. Jonathan doesn't know which weapon was used, but states that Ukraine should have learned from the previous time this happened, and that it is not good enough. He is furious about the loss of experienced crew members.
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Russians Destroy Ukrainian Bogdana Self Propelled Howitzer
🎦 11:39-12:27⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians have destroyed a Bogdana self-propelled howitzer in the Kharkiv direction. The Bogdana is a Ukrainian made weapon, and Jonathan is impressed that production has been ramped up to 10 per month. He notes that there were some issues with early prototypes, but these have now been fixed. He is disappointed that the Russians have destroyed one, but this is to be expected given they are being used more, and reflects the fact that they are needed by the Ukrainians.
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Analysis of Russian Casualties from Ukrainian Drone Strikes
🎦 12:27-15:02⏩
Jonathan plays a clip from a video showing Russian soldiers being killed by Ukrainian drone strikes, and reads a comment from Jane Keefe: "These are human beings, remember? Russian meat waves against Ukrainian drone waves. Absolutely brutal scene in which Russians advancing along a road get picked off one by one with precision drone strikes. One decides it's too much and suicides with a grenade." Jonathan acknowledges that it is a horrible video, but reminds viewers that he analyses these videos to learn something about the warfare, and what it tells us about tactics, etc. Jonathan is particularly struck by the fact that more than one drone appears to have been used to kill each person, highlighting how plentiful FPV drones are to the Ukrainians, given they are happy to use them as individual assassination tools. Jonathan finds this chilling, and notes that the noise of the drones would be terrifying, and would likely cause PTSD to anyone who has survived the war. Jonathan points out that the size of the drones means they would never be able to take out large numbers of troops, but that they are ideal for use against individuals.
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Fire at Institute of Mineral Resources, Naro-Fominsk, Moscow (11/05/2024)
🎦 15:02-15:21⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a fire at warehouses in the Moscow region, reportedly the Institute of Mineral Resources in Naro-Fominsk. Jonathan says that although there is no immediate connection to the war, this is another significant fire in the Moscow area.
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Overnight Distant Strikes in Russia: Rostov and Volgograd
🎦 15:21-17:27⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight strikes. He notes that it has been relatively quiet, other than in Rostov-on-Don (Rostov Oblast) where there appears to have been an explosion. Jonathan shows viewers the location of Rostov, moving eastwards along the coast from the Black Sea, past Crimea and the Sea of Azov, to Taganrog and finally Rostov-on-Don. He then moves on to something more significant - drone attacks on a Volgograd oil refinery. The refinery was previously attacked in February 2024. Jonathan notes that this is becoming a trend - refineries that are still operating after being attacked are being hit for a second time. He sees this as a strategic approach by the Ukrainians. Jonathan highlights that whilst the Russians are doing a good job of targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the Ukrainians are targeting Russian oil infrastructure and hydrocarbons. Ukrainian drones appear to have struck the "Luco Vulgargrad Neneft Pereirabotka" refinery (Volgograd Oblast), causing a fire. Jonathan struggles with this pronunciation, and jokes about the length of the word. He notes that the refinery is approximately 500km from the front line, in Luhansk Oblast.
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Explosion in Belgorod: Apartment Block (11/05/2024)
🎦 17:27-25:24⏩
Jonathan describes a huge explosion in Belgorod, just north of the Ukrainian border, showing footage of the aftermath of the explosion which appears to show a large part of an apartment building collapsing. The local governor claims that the city was shelled by the Ukrainian army, and that a direct shell hit on the apartment building caused the collapse of the entire entrance from the 10th to the first floor. However, Jonathan is sceptical. He shows footage from the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications which appears to show that there was no evidence of anything falling from the air, or indeed any incoming projectile immediately prior to the explosion. The Center believes it was a Russian provocation to justify further strikes on residential buildings in Ukraine. Jonathan states that he is not a fan of conspiracy theories as they are almost always the least probable explanation of events, and require a higher level of evidence to overcome the low probability. He shows a zoomed in, slow motion version of the footage which shows the explosion moving outwards from the building. He also notes that the angle of the footage needs to be considered. Someone has reversed the footage, which shows clearly that there is no missile/shell hitting the building - the explosion comes from inside the building. Jonathan then reads out some comments from Russian Telegram chats: "Explosion from the basement at exactly 11:21", "The fuse was used without installation for seconds", "Gladcomdan the FSB checked the house recently, there were definitely no explosives there," "I swear by my mother this is fascinating, this takes us back to Ryzan 1999." Jonathan is struck by the fact that the FSB had checked the building for explosives, and then a short while later it explodes. He jokes that perhaps the FSB were planting, rather than checking for explosives. He then refers to a comment from a viewer, who states that it reminds him of Ryazan Sugar, 1999. Jonathan agrees, and goes on to explain what happened in Ryazan in 1999. An apartment building was blown up, killing 300 people and injuring 1,000. FSB agents were arrested by local police. The FSB claimed they were carrying out a training exercise, and that the powder seen at the site was sugar, when in fact it is believed to have been hexogen. Many analysts, including Vladimir Putin, believe that this was a false flag operation that was used to trigger the second Chechen war, which Putin won, and which led to him attempting to reclaim the old Soviet Empire. Jonathan recommends that viewers read the Wikipedia page on the 1999 Russian apartment bombings, and notes that the US government made a Freedom of Information request - the CIA refused to acknowledge any existence of relevant records. However, the US State Department responded with a redacted copy of a cable from the US Embassy in Moscow. On 24th March 2000, a former member of the Russian intelligence service told a US diplomat that the truth about the Ryazan incident could never be known, because it "would destroy the country". The informant said that the FSB "had a specially trained team of men, whose mission was to carry out this type of urban warfare". Jonathan points out that this, and other suspicious activity, all points towards the bombing being a false flag operation orchestrated by the Russians. Jonathan returns to the Belgorod explosion, and states that this could be used by the Russians as an excuse to bomb Kharkiv, given the explosion, if it was planted, could be used to justify their attacks on the northern border. Jonathan believes that it was an internal explosion, rather than an external munition.
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Russian Forces Advance into Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 25:24-26:34⏩
Russian forces have reportedly entered Kharkiv Oblast, near Strelecha - a border town located in the grey zone is now under Russian occupation. Jonathan is depressed by this news, and is surprised that the Russian troops were not targeted, given they appear to be walking freely in the video footage. He is curious as to why they are walking, rather than using equipment - is it because the equipment is vulnerable? Or because they do not have the equipment?
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Dam Burst in Omsk (11/05/2024)
🎦 26:34-26:53⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been another dam burst, this time in the Ust-Ishim district of Omsk, and that residents are being evacuated. He reads a comment: "Another collapsed dam and humanitarian catastrophe in the country that spends its budgets on killing its neighbours and threatening the whole world."
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Russians Buying Property in Mariupol
🎦 26:53-28:26⏩
Russians have been flocking to Mariupol to buy cheap properties. Jonathan notes that Russians are seeking to buy properties in Mariupol, where Ukrainians have fled, or been killed. The properties are then being stolen and sold cheaply to Russians. Jonathan is disgusted that Russians held a PR rally in front of the Mariupol Drama Theatre where hundreds of women and children were murdered. He describes how the Russians are celebrating profiting from war crimes.
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Wrap up
🎦 28:26-30:33⏩
Jonathan is lost for words and disgusted by the behaviour of a Russian woman dancing on the rubble of the Mariupol Drama Theatre. He announces that he will be holding a live at 19:00 with Mark and Olena, based in Canada, to discuss their experiences 2 years into the war, as well as the experiences of the Canadian-Ukrainian diaspora. He adds that he will be on Touch Need at 20:00 (UK time). Jonathan apologises that his family have gone to Paultons Park, but that his legs wouldn't be able to cope. He signs off.
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