Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"I always am amazed that they're still operating from airfields so close to the front line"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 18/04/2024. Jonathan thanks JR for the maps.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northern Frontline
🎦 00:14-00:41⏩
Jonathan notes that there are changes to the mapping on the northern border. Deep State Maps have removed the grey zone to reflect that there is no longer any contested territory north of the border although Andrew Perpetua's maps still show this.
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Northeastern Frontline: Russian Advances near Tabayevka
🎦 00:41-01:45⏩
Jonathan observes that after 3 weeks of no movement, Russian forces have made minor gains between Tabayevka, Ivanovka, Chesivyar and Olenska. There may also have been a Ukrainian advance south of this area but this is not reflected on other maps.
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Northeastern Frontline: Repelled Russian attack near Terny and Ukrainian ammunition shortages
🎦 01:45-03:33⏩
Ukrainian forces repel a mechanised assault in the Terny area. Ukrainian forces are critically short of ammunition and are choosing their targets wisely. Jonathan notes that they have been using more artillery recently, perhaps using up stockpiles. Jonathan reads a comment from a viewer (who works in US military ammunition logistics) who states that there are stockpiles of ammunition that could help Ukraine for many months but are stuck because no new military aid bill has been passed by Congress for 7 months. Jonathan finds this deeply frustrating and highlights the impact this is having on Ukrainian troops.
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Northeastern Frontline: Russian Gains and Mapping Discrepancies near Chalk
🎦 03:33-06:43⏩
Russian forces make gains north of Chalk. Jonathan analyses the terrain in this area and highlights the significance of the hills/high ground which may have been hit by Russian shelling. Andrew Perpetua believes Ukrainian forces are in control of this area and is considering reflecting this on his maps whilst Syriac Maps claims this to be under Russian control. Jonathan doubts the accuracy of Syriac Maps. He also discusses Russian gains northeast of the Bilohorivka Chalk Quarry highlighting that this has changed hands several times. Jonathan had previously doubted this but notes that it may be supported by another source. He acknowledges that Andrew Perpetua may be lagging behind Syriac Maps with updates.
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Chasiv Yar Frontline: No Change but Ukrainian concerns
🎦 06:43-08:33⏩
No changes to the frontline around Chasiv Yar which is good news for the Ukrainians. Jonathan reminds viewers of the geographical relationship between Chasiv Yar and other towns including Bakhmut, Opitny, Khrushchevka, Yehidne, Krasnohora, Vlad Datny and Soledar. Jonathan is surprised that despite being some distance from the current fighting, Ukrainian forces are targeting Soledar (which fell to the Russians many months ago) with Hammer precision guided glide bombs supplied by France. He speculates that this might be to take out Russian staging posts, depots or command and control structures. Jonathan is concerned that the situation could change quickly and reminds viewers how volatile the situation is on this frontline.
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Avdiivka Frontline: Russian Advances near Novokalinove and Ocheretny
🎦 08:33-11:31⏩
Russian forces have been pushing north into the settlement of Novokalinove towards Keramk and are making serious advances in that area according to both Deep State Map and Syriac Map. Russian forces have also been advancing on the other side of Novokalinove, moving up the railway line towards Ocheretny. Jonathan notes that Surat Maps claims that Russian forces have taken control of the high ground around Novokalinove, but Jonathan's analysis of the Topography suggests this may not be the case although Russian forces do appear to be on the high ground. Jonathan is concerned by these gains given the advantageous position this gives Russian forces.
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Donetsk Frontline: No Changes but Ukrainian concerns
🎦 11:31-12:05⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been no changes reported along the rest of the frontline, including the Tonyenka area and along the Derna River. This is good news for the Ukrainians who have faced setbacks in this area in recent weeks. Despite the lack of movement, Jonathan notes that with both sides struggling in terms of equipment and personnel, the situation is volatile and a breakthrough is possible.
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Analysis: Russian and Ukrainian Capabilities and the likelihood of offensives
🎦 12:05-13:28⏩
Jonathan analyses the capability of both the Ukrainian and Russian forces to launch offensives. He believes it unlikely that Russian forces have the capacity for a significant breakthrough, and questions whether they have sufficient equipment and troops to do so. He speculates on the number of troops Russia may have in reserve (given that they are estimated to be conscripting 30,000 troops per month).
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Russian Strike on Dnipro Airfield: Ukrainian MiG-29s Destroyed
🎦 13:28-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian MiG-29s based at Dnipro Airfield have been destroyed in a Russian missile attack. Jonathan believes that this is retaliation for the Ukrainian strike on the Jankoi airfield a few days earlier when the Russians lost S400 and radar equipment. Jonathan is unsure when the footage was filmed, noting that the Russians often delay releasing footage to control the narrative. Jonathan expresses his surprise that Ukrainian aircraft continue to operate from airfields so close to the frontline. He acknowledges that whilst it makes them vulnerable, the closer they are, the more effectively they can operate.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:05-16:09⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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