Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Chechen-Russia Tensions, Oil Attack Strategy, & Mobilisation
Table of Contents 📖
"It takes six civilians paying taxes to provide for one fighter."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an "extra nuggets and tidbits" video about the war in Ukraine.
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Tensions between Chechen and Russian forces in Melitopol
🎦 00:11-06:12⏩
Jonathan discusses an incident that took place six days prior to recording involving Chechen fighters and Russian soldiers at a checkpoint in occupied Melitopol. The incident involved a Chechen commander whose paperwork was challenged by a Russian soldier leading to threats of violence. Jonathan highlights that this is a sign of the uneasy alliance between Chechen and Russian forces. He argues that whilst many Chechens are fighting for Russia, their loyalty may not be as strong as ethnic Russians given the history of conflict between the two. He notes that the Chechens were invaded by the Russians during two wars in the 1990s and 2000s with Ramzan Kadyrov eventually switching sides. He reminds viewers that many Chechens inside Chechnya are not fans of Russia. Jonathan welcomes these tensions, arguing that any infighting is good for the Ukrainians.
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Ukraine's Mobilisation Challenges - balancing military needs with economic stability
🎦 06:12-21:14⏩
Jonathan discusses an article in the Kyiv Independent about the challenges Ukraine faces in mobilising more troops. He describes this as "a difficult subject". Whilst acknowledging that Ukraine needs more "boots on the ground", he explains that mobilising large numbers of men would have a detrimental impact on the Ukrainian economy, impacting its ability to fund the war effort. Jonathan argues that Zelensky faces a dilemma: call up more fighting-age men and risk crippling the economy, or try to maintain some economic stability and hope that it's enough. Jonathan provides the example (from Zelensky) that it takes six civilians paying taxes to provide for one fighter - "this is so key, right?". This means that every civilian conscripted to the army represents a significant loss to the economy. Jonathan is sympathetic to Zelensky's position, unlike some commentators (he mentions Andrew Perpetua) who have criticised Zelensky for not doing more. He explains that Zelensky is trying to strike a balance between the needs of the military, who "understand very well what war is", and the needs of civilians, who have become accustomed to a "new ordinary life" and don't want to fight. Jonathan argues that it is too simplistic to argue that Ukraine should simply mobilise more men without considering the wider impact on society. He discusses the new draft law making its way through the Ukrainian parliament, noting that it proposes extending military contracts to three years (36 months) and removing some exemptions, which is causing anxiety among the population. There are rumours of people being "bundled into vans" for dodging the draft - Jonathan finds this amusing, pointing out that the alternative of politely asking people to get into a van is hardly realistic. Jonathan reads an account from "Mikhailo", an IT specialist from Chernivtsi, who says that he is afraid to leave his home for fear of being drafted. "Mikhailo" says that he donates money to the army and feels guilty about enjoying his life whilst others are fighting.
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Ukraine targeting Russian oil infrastructure - Anton Gerashchenko
🎦 21:14-24:40⏩
Jonathan discusses Anton Gerashchenko's comments about Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian oil depots and refineries. He notes that this is similar to Russia's strategy, citing the recent attack on Kremenchuk as an example. He lists eight attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since the beginning of 2024:
- 8th January: Explosion near Gazprom Neft facilities in Nizhny Tagil.
- 9th January: Kamikaze drone attack on an Orel Neft product oil depot in Orel region.
- 18th January: Drone debris found at the Petersburg oil terminal in Leningrad region - the first such attack on the region.
- 19th January: Drone attack on an oil depot in Klinsky, Bryansk region, a major transit hub for fuel and lubricants.
- 21st January: Four fuel tanks holding 3,100 tonnes of fuel destroyed in a fire at an oil depot in Klinsky.
- 21st January: Drone attack on the port of Ust-Luga in Leningrad region (near St. Petersburg)
- 24th January: Drone strike on the Tuatsi oil refinery in Krasnodar region, one of the ten largest in Russia and the only one on the Black Sea coast.
Jonathan argues that these attacks serve two purposes:
- To damage Russia's ability to produce fuel for its troops and harm the Russian economy.
- To force Russia to further stretch its already overstretched air defences.
He describes this as a "good problem" for the Russians to have, forcing them to make difficult choices about what to defend. He uses the analogy of a bed with a blanket that is too small: "every time you pull the blanket in one direction, it exposes somewhere else."
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Wrap up
🎦 24:40-24:59⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He mentions that he will update his members' list soon and thanks his members for their support.
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