Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If the US population heard about this and heard about how disgusting the Russians are treating Ukrainian prisoners of war then you [would] get a lot more support for what's, support for Ukraine. Like, this should be beamed out. This, this kind of interview should be absolutely front and center of reporting on Ukraine at the moment."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update, the first part for August 8th, 2024. He acknowledges his earlier breaking news update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Loss Figures
🎦 00:18-03:10⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses. He notes:
- Personnel losses are typical.
- Tank and armored personnel vehicle losses are lower than the daily average.
- Artillery system losses are lower than recent trends but still double the daily average.
- High numbers of multiple launch rocket systems and anti-aircraft warfare systems lost, potentially due to Ukrainian operations near Kursk.
- One fixed-wing aircraft and one helicopter lost, possibly related to the reported downing of Russian aircraft and helicopters in the Kursk region.
- Significant losses of vehicles (59) and fuel tanks.
- He questions the reported drone losses (81), as the figure seems high given other reports and the lack of clarity on the types of drones included in the count.
Ukrainian Offensive in Kursk: Impact and Unknowns
🎦 04:04-06:40⏩
Jonathan analyses the potential impact of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk on reported equipment losses, noting:
- The offensive could explain the lower Russian tank and APV losses if Russian attacks have decreased in the area.
- Ukrainians are making progress in Kursk, while Russia appears to be downplaying the situation to their domestic audience.
- Raises the question of Ukraine's objectives in Kursk. If they need to hold captured territory, it could divert resources from other areas like the eastern front line.
- Acknowledges the offensive will result in Ukrainian losses, but argues that taking the initiative back from Russia is crucial.
- Cites the example of Russia's Kharkiv offensive, which aimed to seize back the initiative but was ultimately unsuccessful.
Analysis of Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 06:40-08:31⏩
Jonathan examines reported Ukrainian equipment losses from Oryx, highlighting:
- Losses include an M7772 Hercules recovery vehicle, artillery pieces, and a significant number of Western-provided infantry fighting vehicles like Marders and Bradleys.
- He expects losses of such equipment as Ukraine is actively engaging in offensives and utilising its best resources.
- Speculates whether the use of Western equipment is due to the depletion of older Soviet-era equipment or simply because it's more effective.
- Notes that a significant portion of the lost Western equipment is listed as damaged or abandoned, including Bradleys and Marders. He hopes these can be repaired and stresses the importance of the equipment's role in protecting Ukrainian troops.
- Points out the use of Lancet loitering munitions against two Marders, suggesting these Marders were positioned further behind the front lines.
- Also notes the use of a Molnia drone (a Russian fixed-wing drone) to target an M777.
Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 08:31-11:28⏩
- Covers Russian equipment losses, including a damaged Ka-52 helicopter (potentially the second one reported), a Mi-28 helicopter hit by an FPV drone, electronic warfare equipment, artillery, and tanks.
- Highlights the destruction of a T-90M tank, abandoned and targeted by an FPV drone.
- Observes a trend of higher percentages of Russian infantry fighting vehicles being destroyed or abandoned compared to Ukrainian losses. This aligns with a pattern observed throughout the war, suggesting Western equipment might be more survivable.
- Emphasises the significance of the loss of Russian aircraft in terms of the overall value of equipment lost.
Russian Surrenders in Kursk
🎦 11:28-13:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the numerous reports of Russian troops surrendering to Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, noting:
- Many reports, supported by video evidence, show large groups of Russians surrendering.
- Cites a specific example from Osman, commander of the 24th Separate Assault Brigade, reporting 40 Russian soldiers captured by four Ukrainian fighters.
- This influx of Russian POWs could be beneficial for Ukraine in prisoner exchanges.
- The surrenders also weaken Russian forces in the area.
Russian MOD Claims Versus Reality
🎦 13:11-13:43⏩
Jonathan dismisses Russian MOD claims of Ukraine losing 660 personnel and 82 armoured vehicles in Kursk as propaganda, highlighting the lack of visual confirmation and the improbability of such high numbers.
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Propagandist Yevgeny Podubny Injured
🎦 13:43-14:47⏩
Jonathan discusses the case of Yevgeny Podubny, a prominent Russian propagandist, who was seriously injured in Kursk when his car was targeted and destroyed by an FPV drone. While initial reports suggested he was killed, footage has emerged of him being hospitalized, though the extent of his injuries suggests he won't be active in the near future. Jonathan sees this as a positive development for Ukraine, as Podubny was a key figure in spreading Russian disinformation. He contrasts Podubny with other Russian military bloggers who offer more critical perspectives and are sometimes valuable sources of information.
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Drone Strike on Russian Train
🎦 14:47-15:24⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian drone strike that successfully hit a moving Russian train carrying supplies. He praises the work of the Ronin drone unit of the 65th Brigade of the AFU, emphasizing the challenge of such a strike. He underscores the importance of targeting trains as they are crucial to Russian military logistics.
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Possible Su-34 Shootdown
🎦 15:26-16:16⏩
Jonathan addresses reports of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber being shot down in the Kursk region while attempting to launch guided bombs. While unconfirmed, multiple sources suggest an aircraft was downed. He acknowledges the possibility of it being a different aircraft, such as an Su-35. Regardless, the loss of any aircraft would be significant for the Ukrainians.
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Analysis of Russian BMP Stocks and Refurbishment
🎦 16:16-19:37⏩
Jonathan delves into a detailed analysis by Jomini of the Truth (@JominiOfYours) on the state of Russian BMP (infantry fighting vehicle) stocks and refurbishment efforts:
- Jomini's analysis indicates that BMPs in storage are primarily used for spare parts due to the heavy workload and backlogs at Russian refurbishment plants (BTRZs).
- To compensate for armored vehicle shortages, Russia has relied on MTLBs, which are now nearing depletion in storage.
- This situation likely explains the increased use of ATVs (quad bikes and motorbikes) in Russian assault tactics.
- While Russia has ramped up production of BMP-3s, their BMP-2 losses have been substantial, and BMP-1s are in short supply.
- Jomini's analysis concludes that:
- Monitoring BTRZs is now more crucial than tracking storage bases for assessing Russian BMP availability.
- The Russian stockpile of armored vehicles is shrinking.
- Cannibalization efforts have rendered many remaining BMPs in storage unusable without significant refurbishment.
- Despite these challenges, Russia is far from depleting its armored vehicle inventory and will continue to rely on older equipment.
- Approximately 400 BMPs were pulled from storage this year, likely sent to BTRZs for refurbishment.
- Frontline units are probably receiving a larger number of refurbished BMPs from BTRZs, along with newly produced BMP-3s.
Distance Strikes and Attacks
🎦 19:37-21:41⏩
Jonathan discusses recent distance strikes and attacks:
- Four out of four Shaheed attack drones were shot down.
- Ballistic Iskander missiles hit Kharkiv, likely launched from Belgorod, too close to the border for interception. He speculates about the return of the S-300 system that caused significant damage to Kharkiv previously and the need to locate and neutralize it.
- All four attack drones targeting an unspecified location were intercepted, along with two Kh-59 guided air missiles.
- Russian forces attacked emergency service workers in Nikopol (a city north of the Zaporizhia Reservoir) with shelling, damaging equipment but causing no casualties.
- Ukrainian HIMARS struck Russian equipment positions in Zaporizhia. He notes that while HIMARS strikes are reported less frequently, it might be due to factors like reduced usage, Russian adaptation, or less media attention.
Russians Disposing of Bodies to Avoid Compensation
🎦 21:41-23:12⏩
Jonathan shares a disturbing video tweeted by Tim White (@TWMCLtd) showing an individual in a Russian SUV discarding body bags in a field. He speculates, based on Tim White's commentary, that this could be a way for Russia to avoid paying compensation to the families of deceased soldiers and to obscure the true number of casualties. This practice allows them to classify soldiers as "missing" rather than acknowledging their deaths.
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Torture of Ukrainian POWs by Russia
🎦 23:12-24:52⏩
Jonathan discusses the alarming report from the UN that Russia is torturing 95% of Ukrainian prisoners of war. He cites Anton Gerashchenko, who describes the torture as the worst he's seen in his 20-year career. The report details brutal methods used, including beatings, electrocution, and stripping prisoners naked. Jonathan expresses his frustration that this news hasn't received more attention from mainstream media, especially in the US, as he believes it would galvanize greater support for Ukraine. He emphasizes the gravity of the situation, calling it a war crime.
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Ukraine Launches Military App, Russia Blocks YouTube
🎦 24:52-25:52⏩
Jonathan reports on two contrasting developments:
- Ukraine has launched "Army Plus," a military app aimed at reducing bureaucracy and paperwork for soldiers and commanders.
- Russia has reportedly blocked YouTube (both mobile and desktop versions) entirely. This follows a period of slowdowns and disruptions. Gerashchenko suggests this is part of Russia's broader crackdown on information. Jonathan sees it as a move towards a full-blown dictatorship.
Possible S-400 Transfer from Crimea
🎦 25:52-27:20⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from the Crimean Wind Telegram channel about the transfer of an S-400 missile system from Sevastopol to an unspecified northern location. While the exact destination is unclear, he speculates it could be headed to Kursk to bolster defenses there. He also notes that moving the S-400 weakens Crimea's air defenses and suggests Russia is facing significant equipment shortages. Jonathan believes Ukraine should capitalize on this by targeting Crimea's air defenses and logistics to render the peninsula strategically useless to Russia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 27:20-27:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and signs off.
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