Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Smolensk & Liski
Table of Contents 📖
"You don't know what you're saying, you gargantuan dimwit."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan greets viewers from the back of a truck, apologising in advance for the potentially suboptimal audio and visual quality of the video due to his current circumstances - he's on his way to Ukraine! He jokes about OPSEC and the common, yet meaningless, saying "it is what it is". He notes that internet bandwidth is being throttled due to the breaking news that Trump is now president again, making it harder to collate information.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: High Russian Losses
🎦 00:26-02:35⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses for the previous day. Key figures include a daily high of 1,600 personnel, 12 tanks (above average), 23 troop carriers (above average), and a significant spike with 60 artillery systems lost. He speculates that these figures may indicate intense fighting along the front lines, particularly in the Kursk, Prokrosk, Velyka Novosilka, and Karakove sectors. Jonathan notes that the high number of artillery systems lost contradicts reports of Russia struggling to field artillery pieces, although acknowledges that these reports are widespread.
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Additional Russian Losses: Air Defence Systems
🎦 02:35-02:58⏩
In addition to the losses from the previous day, Jonathan notes that there have been reports from Ukrainian military sources of a Russian Tor Buk air defense system being destroyed on 19th January. He observes that Ukraine appears to be highly active in targeting these systems.
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Kursk: Tensions Between Russian and North Korean Forces
🎦 02:58-03:27⏩
Jonathan reports on an incident in the Kursk region on 13th January, where three North Korean soldiers allegedly killed five Russian servicemen from the heavily depleted 810th Marine Brigade. He notes that the suspects are still at large and speculates that this incident could indicate ongoing friction between North Korean and Russian forces in the area.
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Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Russian Ammunition Use Cut in Half
🎦 03:27-04:58⏩
Jonathan highlights a statement from Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who claims that Russia's ammunition use has been cut by almost 50% due to successful long-term Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets, including ammunition depots. Jonathan finds this statement significant, noting that it aligns with his previous predictions. He observes a decrease in footage of Russian artillery bombardments, adding weight to Zaluzhnyi's claim. Despite yesterday's high losses of artillery pieces, he acknowledges the persistent reports of Russia struggling to replace lost artillery.
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Kursk: 47th and 82nd Brigades Repel Russian Assault
🎦 04:58-05:31⏩
Jonathan reports on the successful repulsion of a large-scale Russian assault near Kursk, spearheaded by the Ukrainian 47th Mechanised Brigade (Magura) and 82nd Air Assault Brigade. The attack resulted in significant Russian losses, including three tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and numerous casualties (35 killed, 62 wounded).
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Update Backlog: 15th January Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 05:31-06:29⏩
Jonathan acknowledges a backlog in his reporting and provides an update on events from 15th January. He states that Russia launched a massive drone attack using 131 drones, all of which were neutralized (72 shot down, 59 disabled by electronic warfare). Additionally, Russia fired four Iskander missiles, but it is unclear how many, if any, were intercepted. Jonathan acknowledges some uncertainty with his sources due to his current situation, hindering precise reporting.
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Drone Attack on Voronezh Oil Depot (First Attack)
🎦 06:29-06:55⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian claim that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack an oil depot in the Lyskinsky district of Voronezh. Russia alleges that all drones were shot down by air defence and electronic warfare systems. However, Governor Gusev contradicted this by stating that one drone crashed into the depot, causing a fire. Jonathan expresses scepticism toward the Russian claim, highlighting its contradictory nature.
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Drone Attack on Smolensk Aviation Plant
🎦 06:55-10:55⏩
Jonathan covers a reported Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensk Aviation Plant, a facility involved in the production and modernisation of Su-25 military aircraft, as confirmed by Andriy Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. He shares footage from Tim White's Twitter thread showing an air defence missile malfunctioning and causing an incident in Smolensk. Despite numerous people filming, officials claim no casualties and attribute the small fires to falling debris. Jonathan then analyses another video depicting a fixed-wing drone, possibly a Lutie, hitting the Smolensk aviation plant, causing a fire. He points out a clear image of the drone from the footage before it strikes the factory. He then refers to information from Dmitry of WarTranslated confirming the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed the strikes on both the oil depot in the Voronezh region and the aircraft factory in Smolensk. Jonathan provides further details from the General Staff report about the oil depot attack, revealing it to be the second attack on the Lisky oil depot in a week. He notes that the attack was coordinated with other Ukrainian defence forces and resulted in the destruction of fuel storage tanks belonging to Rosneft, a major Russian state-owned corporation. He then highlights a report from January 20th about an "inaugural" drone attack on the Voronezh region using at least 30 drones, possibly targeting an oil depot in Lisky. Jonathan points out that this information suggests the Lisky oil depot was targeted twice – once two nights ago and again last night. He also references information from January 20th confirming another fire at the Lisky oil refinery, with locals claiming it was intensifying and likely caused by a direct hit. He concludes that the Lisky oil depot has been attacked multiple times in recent days and expresses his intention to find out more about the Smolensk attack.
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Prokrosk: Destruction Continues, Shopping Centre and Residential Building Hit
🎦 10:55-14:12⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Prokrosk, which continues to face heavy bombardment. He shares a video posted by volunteer Denis Kristof showing extensive damage in the town centre, including a shopping centre and residential building hit by Russian missiles and jets. He criticizes the destruction of civilian infrastructure under the guise of "liberation", arguing that it only brings death, chaos, and the loss of human decency.
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Russian Soldier Compares Ukrainian Drones to Luftwaffe
🎦 14:12-16:13⏩
Jonathan discusses a WarTranslated report about a Russian mobilised soldier complaining about Ukrainian drones operating with impunity. The soldier likens the drone swarms to the Luftwaffe in 1941, highlighting the lack of resistance from Russian air defences. The soldier describes Ukrainian drone tactics, stating they operate in groups of four to five, actively hunting for targets. He expresses frustration at the lack of air cover for Russian forces.
Ukrainian Forces Hijacking Russian Drones
🎦 16:13-16:31⏩
Jonathan reveals information from a trusted source about Ukrainian forces successfully hijacking Russian drones and using them against Russian troops. While unable to provide specifics, he expresses astonishment at this capability and wonders how widespread the practice is within the Ukrainian military.
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Helsinki Court Seizes Eagle S Vessel for Cable Cutting
🎦 16:31-18:01⏩
Jonathan discusses the Helsinki Court's seizure of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of involvement in cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. He views this as confirmation that the cable cutting was sabotage and not an accident, as previously suggested by a Washington Post article. The claim that the ship accidentally dragged its anchor for 100km, damaging the cables, is dismissed as absurd. He notes that the petition for arrest came from companies owning the severed cables, indicating their belief that this was a deliberate act of sabotage.
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Trump's Ignorance about BRICS and Spain
🎦 18:01-21:04⏩
Despite usually avoiding politics in his videos, Jonathan expresses deep concern about the future after witnessing a video of Trump. He criticizes Trump's lack of understanding about geopolitics, using a clip of Trump mistaking Spain for a BRICS nation as evidence. He is alarmed by Trump's ignorance and lack of basic knowledge about international affairs, questioning his competency to lead. Jonathan sarcastically refers to Trump as a "gargantuan dimwit" and suggests that Europe might have to distance itself from the US and independently support Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:04-21:28⏩
Jonathan ends the video abruptly, deciding to postpone his rant about Trump's incompetence for a private conversation with Mark and Yaroslava.
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