Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"800 missiles, if that is true, is pitiful. They are firing missiles into Ukraine at the rate they produce them, and they have dwindled their stocks to be at absolutely shocking levels. If they were to go to war with another nation at the moment...if they went to war with Poland at the moment...Poland would defeat Russia."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:55⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, reminding them that there will be some disruption to the usual upload schedule in the coming weeks due to travel.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures for 31/01/2024
🎦 00:55-07:11⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses for the previous day, noting high numbers, particularly personnel (1,000) and artillery systems (33), likely reflecting both Ukrainian counteroffensives and successful targeting of Russian troop concentrations and depots. He emphasizes the importance of corroborating these figures with visual evidence like the destruction of Russian vehicles in Nova Mykhailivka, which supports the accuracy of the reported losses. Jonathan also acknowledges Ukrainian losses, including boats used for river crossings near Krynka, which are vulnerable to Russian drone attacks. He analyses the losses depicted in Oryx, noting the significant disparity in losses, favouring Ukraine and highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics. He concludes that maintaining this attrition rate is crucial for Ukraine to reach a tipping point in the conflict.
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Analysis: Impact of Ukrainian drone strikes
🎦 07:11-20:30⏩
Jonathan delves into the impact of Ukrainian strikes, particularly focusing on the effectiveness of drone warfare. He questions the veracity of reports claiming Ukrainian losses of three jets and 20 personnel at Belbek Air Base in Crimea, citing unreliable sourcing while acknowledging the possibility. He questions the strategic logic of using expensive Storm Shadow missiles against time-sensitive targets like aircraft, suggesting more suitable targets like air traffic control towers and personnel billets. Jonathan analyses a video showing a Russian convoy destroyed near Nova Mykhailivka by the 72nd Brigade, highlighting the devastating impact of Ukrainian drone strikes, particularly first-person view (FPV) drones. He notes the significance of this tactic in the context of potential artillery shell shortages and the abundance of drone munitions. Jonathan cites a Russian military blogger's critical response to the video, expressing disbelief at the lack of preparedness and countermeasures against Ukrainian drones. The blogger's remarks, as well as recent statements by Ukrainian officials, suggest a shift in the military landscape where drones are playing an increasingly pivotal role. Jonathan compares Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare tactics, referencing data from a previous video with military analyst Tochny. While Ukrainian drone strikes on vehicles significantly outnumber Russian strikes, Russian drones are more frequently used against infantry and defensive positions. This disparity, he posits, stems from Ukrainian strategic positioning on the defensive and the lack of readily available high-value targets like vehicles. This analysis suggests that while both sides are actively engaged in drone warfare, Ukrainian tactics are proving more effective in attriting Russian military capabilities. He discusses the psychological impact of consistent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian forces. The high attrition rate, coupled with the constant threat of drone attacks, likely contributes to demoralization and a decline in Russian military effectiveness.
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Russian Decoy destroyed in Izyum
🎦 20:30-28:24⏩
Jonathan reports on the Russian destruction of a Ukrainian decoy launcher, designed to resemble the German-supplied IRIS-T SLM air defense system, in Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast. He highlights the effectiveness of decoys, noting both sides employ them to deceive the enemy and deplete their missile stocks. Jonathan uses the example provided by defence analyst Dead District of a rotating radar decoy to illustrate the sophistication of these decoys in mimicking high-value targets. Despite the seemingly low cost of decoys compared to the missiles used against them, Jonathan argues that their use is a strategically sound investment, saving valuable equipment, and inflicting financial costs on Russia.
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Russian partisan activity
🎦 28:24-31:16⏩
Jonathan covers acts of sabotage and disruption within Russia. The Liberty of Russia Legion claims responsibility for a bombing at a metal plant in Perm, highlighting the vulnerability of Russian industrial infrastructure to partisan attacks. They also claimed responsibility for disrupting rail lines used by Russian Aerospace Forces in the Tambov region. The group issued a warning, emphasizing the potential for future attacks and specifically targeting those involved in producing weapons used against Ukrainian civilians, signalling an escalation of resistance within Russia itself. In Krasnodar, a fire broke out in a trade pavilion. Jonathan also mentions the Ukrainian resistance group Atesh, believed to be active in Crimea.
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Putin's claims of success in Avdiivka
🎦 31:16-37:09⏩
Jonathan analyses recent statements from the Kremlin, particularly Putin's claims of capturing 19 buildings in Avdiivka after months of fighting. He contrasts this with earlier boasts of swift victory, highlighting the stark reality of Russia's stalled offensive operations. Jonathan draws attention to the diminishing returns of Russia's grinding offensive in Donbas, where territorial gains are minimal and come at a high cost. He cites a Russian source acknowledging the effectiveness of Ukrainian defensive tactics and their strategic use of drones, suggesting a growing awareness within Russia of the challenges they face in this conflict. Jonathan ends this section by talking about the Russian shelling of Sumy Oblast.
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Overnight Russian strikes
🎦 37:09-41:07⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight Russian strikes, highlighting the missile and drone attacks on various targets in Ukraine. He mentions the use of four drones, two of which were shot down. He expresses concern over a strike on a hospital in Kharkiv, noting the lack of detailed information released, and condemns the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Kherson, which has endured sustained shelling since its liberation. Jonathan cites claims by Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea that six missiles were intercepted, though acknowledges independent verification of this is lacking. He then covers a wave of Ukrainian strikes that took place, targeting various locations in Crimea, including Belbek Air Base, potentially using Storm Shadow or SCALP cruise missiles.
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Analysis of Russian missile inventory
🎦 41:07-43:58⏩
Jonathan examines figures released by Ukrainian sources regarding Russia's remaining missile inventory, which stands at roughly 800 missiles, including 63 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. He questions the accuracy of these figures, noting the lack of transparency regarding the methodology used in their calculation. However, even if accurate, Jonathan argues that this represents a critically low stockpile for a country engaged in a protracted war, highlighting the unsustainability of Russia's missile campaign against Ukraine. He compares this to the USA's significantly larger inventory of various types of cruise missiles, including JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) and Tomahawk missiles, demonstrating the disparity in military capabilities between the two nations. Jonathan concludes that Russia's missile stocks are severely depleted, jeopardizing its ability to wage a prolonged conflict or engage in future conflicts with other nations.
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Other News
🎦 43:58-55:50⏩
Jonathan addresses rumours circulating about the potential dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny. While acknowledging the initial denial by Ukrainian officials, he notes the lack of subsequent refutations and the emergence of supporting information from various credible sources, including journalists and political commentators. He suggests a high probability of at least some truth to the rumours, emphasizing the significance of the information blackout from Zelensky. Jonathan welcomes the recent prisoner exchange that saw the return of 207 Ukrainian prisoners of war, noting that none of the captured crew members from the downed Il-76 plane were among those released. He then condemns the ongoing forced relocation of both Ukrainians and Russians by the Kremlin, highlighting the demographic manipulation taking place in occupied territories like Melitopol. Jonathan connects this to the UN court's ruling that Russia violated an international convention by financing its proxies in Donbas back in 2014. Finally, he discusses Anton Gerashchenko's analysis of recent internet outages in Russia. Gerashchenko speculates that these outages, often attributed to anti-drone measures, are part of a broader strategy by the Kremlin to control the population and suppress potential dissent during and after the upcoming elections. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, highlighting the increasing authoritarianism of the Putin regime and its willingness to utilize internet shutdowns as a tool for political control, drawing parallels to similar tactics used in other authoritarian states.
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Wrap up
🎦 55:50-55:53⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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