Ukraine Conflict (20231130): Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"Continued Russian claims about the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements on the east bank suggest that Russian forces are struggling to interdict Ukrainian efforts to supply and reinforce their positions on the Eastern Bank."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a reminder of what the colours on his map represent. There is no significant news on the Kubiansk to Svatova to Kreminna front line in terms of exchange of territory despite Ukrainian claims of counter-attacks in the Lyman-Pashi area or near Kupiansk. The weather has deteriorated but the front line remains active.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Bakhmut
- Russian army has made small advances near the Bekivka Reservoir on the way to Bolonivka according to Syriat Maps.
- Syriat Maps had reported large Russian gains near Kramove village yesterday but this is disputed by other OSINT mappers like Perpetua.
- The area of high ground overlooking Bakhmut near Kramove is tactically important for the Ukrainians. If the Russians have genuinely taken Kromova as Syriat Maps claims, it would challenge the Ukrainian's ability to maintain their advantage in overlooking Bakhmut.
- ISW has not observed confirmation of the Russian claims of capturing Kramove. Russian sources claim fighting continues northwest and southwest of Bakhmut.
- A Ukrainian reserve officer noted the situation southwest of Bakhmut along the Klishchivka-Drivka-Kurdia-Mivka line is especially challenging due to increased Russian assaults and units in the area.
Avdiivka
- Heavy clashes are taking place around the water treatment facilities near Avdiivka which are now contested.
- Russian attacks towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant were repelled by the Ukrainian army.
- A Ukrainian soldier reported the situation in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka is very challenging for Russian forces to move through due to Ukrainian drone use and mortar fire.
- Russian forces are trying to capture the Avdiivka Coke Plant using squad-sized frontal assaults which a Ukrainian commander characterised as highly attritional.
- A Ukrainian forces spokesperson noted Russian activity near Avdiivka has significantly increased and they are using armoured vehicles.
Marinka
Syriat Map reports minimal Russian advances in Marinka over the last hours but a breakthrough of the front line is highly unlikely in the short term. The town has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Russian forces still have not established effective control after a year and a half of fighting. The only possibility of ending the battle will be either Ukrainian withdrawal or the opening of secondary fronts by Russian troops. For now, it does not seem to be a Russian priority and the Ukrainians do not seem to have problems maintaining their positions.
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Velyka Novosilka
There are some small Russian gains along a tree line between Pryiutne and Staromayorske. Fighting is still taking place in the Velyka Novosilka sector but it is calmer than previously.
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Vuhledar/Pavlivka
The ISW reports Russian claims of advancing 800m in several areas near Vuhledar and Pavlivka, and capturing Ukrainian strongholds near Vodyane, but these are not confirmed. A prominent Russian military blogger claimed Russian forces are focused on capturing tactically advantageous positions in the area and do not intend to launch larger counter-attacks.
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Kherson
There are no changes to the front line in the Kherson area from any of the OSINT mappers which is a cause for concern. While the Russians are unable to dislodge the Ukrainians from Krinki where they maintain a foothold, the Russians are hammering the Ukrainians with aviation guided glide bombs like the FAB-500. The ISW says battles are ongoing near Krinki and Russian aviation and artillery are heavily striking the area. The Ukrainian General Staff report they maintain positions on the east bank of the Dnipro. Russian military bloggers claim Ukraine continues to transfer assault groups of 300-400 personnel to the left bank near Krinki. Continued Russian claims about Ukrainian reinforcements arriving suggest Russia is struggling to interdict Ukrainian efforts to supply and reinforce their positions on the east bank.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes the frontline update is fairly short today without a great deal of movement. We may be moving into the winter segment or at least the wet autumnal phase before winter when the ground starts hardening up. In winter proper, there might actually be more activity than at the moment. Jonathan reminds viewers to check out his live stream the next morning at 10am UK time (5am EST) with John Sweeney, a former BBC investigative journalist, documentary maker and author of the book "Killer in the Kremlin" which Jonathan recommends reading. John Sweeney is currently working in Kyiv.
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