Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Changing Security Architecture
Table of Contents 📖
"The US, while Doris has beaten up and she's lying on the floor, the US had been helping Doris previously, given her a baseball bat to fend off Ivan, been helping Doris, and now the US is looming over Doris and saying, I will only help you if you give me the keys to your house."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan introduces part two of his Ukraine War Update for 21/02/2025. He's finding it difficult to record due to the high volume of news to report. He explains that he will be discussing Military Aid to Ukraine and the changing security architecture that is impacting the world.
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US Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 00:12-04:00⏩
Jonathan reports on comments made by Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, who has said there is no appetite in Congress for further military aid to Ukraine as the war has "dragged on for too long". Rumours from various sources in Ukraine, including the Ukrainian Defence Committee, suggest that the US has frozen all arms sales (including Foreign Military Sales) and deliveries to Ukraine. Jonathan explains that this is likely due to a proposed deal for Ukraine to hand over Gas, Nuclear and Rare Earth mineral rights to the US in return for continued support. Jonathan uses an analogy of a fight between Ivan (Russia), Doris (Ukraine) and the US who gave Doris a baseball bat to defend herself and is now demanding the keys to her house. He expresses his disgust at the US for doing this, adding that if Ukraine refuse to agree to the deal, the US will side with Russia against them, citing the removal of sanctions and the withdrawal of Starlink and intelligence as examples.
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Elon Musk's Comments About US Aid to Ukraine
🎦 04:01-05:00⏩, 08:28-11:30⏩
Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's recent comments that a significant percentage of aid sent to Ukraine has been used to benefit US politicians (DNC and some Republicans), which he believes explains Zelensky's comments about only receiving half the money. Whilst acknowledging that Musk's comments are in response to misinformation from Donald Trump, he believes that Musk is incorrect to attribute this to corruption. Jonathan believes that Musk's comments are in relation to funds being allocated to procure US weapons and delays in delivering them. He cautions viewers not to interpret this as Musk changing his stance as he has recently made several other anti-Ukraine comments. Jonathan speculates that Musk may not be writing all of his own tweets.
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Impact on European Security Architecture and Defence
🎦 11:31-18:14⏩
Jonathan discusses Oliver Alexander's point about the Republicans dismantling the US military and assisting China in dominating the Pacific in order to appease Russia, highlighting the 35% cut (over 5 years) to the DoD proposed by HEGSEF (Heritage Foundation?). Jonathan notes the impact on USAID and the Voice of America (Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Liberty) which are being defunded whilst Russia invests heavily in propaganda. He highlights the impact of HEGSEF's intention to fire pro-Ukraine generals and flag officers, noting the similarities with the dismantling of the CIA, FBI and various counter terrorism/intelligence agencies in previous administrations. Jonathan believes that the US is trying to help Russia as much as possible whilst Europe is realising that the US is no longer a reliable ally due to the constant changes every four years when a new administration takes over. Jonathan provides an example of discussions he had with his friends about how the EU is actually more reliable than the US because its structure means it's less susceptible to extreme policy changes and therefore a more constant and reliable ally. He argues that the US system is not pluralistic and therefore unreliable. Jonathan believes that Europe is being forced to rethink its security arrangements in light of the US's behaviour and the increasing threat from the East (Russia and China), particularly with the US's provision of the nuclear umbrella and satellite intelligence.
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EU Military Aid and European Defence
🎦 18:15-26:09⏩
Jonathan discusses a new EU aid package, due to be announced on Monday, which will send a strong message to Ukraine that the EU is united. This is in response to the US trying to pressure the EU/Ukraine. He also discusses Emmanuel Macron's consideration of increasing French military spending from 2.1% to 5% in order to reduce reliance on the US for security. Jonathan explains that this would take time to implement but highlights the move to a more independent Europe. He discusses comments made by Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister, who is calling for $270bn of frozen Russian assets to be used to support Ukraine, particularly given the recent meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia. Jonathan highlights comments by Emmanuel Macron, who has said that Europe needs a "massive" defence plan to face the growing threat from Russia, but acknowledges that this would be very expensive, particularly at a time when finances are stretched. Jonathan ponders on whether this will be achievable but notes that the UK is happy to provide defence and support to Ukraine given the threat posed by Russia.
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Polish Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 26:10-26:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Poland will soon be sending its 46th Military Aid package to Ukraine, suggesting that this is Europe's attempt to fill the gap left by the US. However, he queries how much Europe can realistically provide given the sheer volume of military equipment that the US has.
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Italian Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 26:38-28:12⏩
Jonathan reports that Italy is sending B-1 Centauro's to Ukraine, noting that these are similar to French AMX-10 RCs (wheeled tanks). He quotes Military Analyst Jeff22146, who believes that these will be of limited value due to being lightly armoured and better suited to use as self-propelled guns. Jonathan reflects that this was also the case with the French AMX-10 RCs that were deployed in the May 2023 counter offensive in Ukraine, which were found to be vulnerable to attack.
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Ukrainian Drone and Ammunition Production
🎦 28:13-29:24⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is changing the way it provides drones to the front line, seeking to reduce the delivery times from months to weeks, and aims to have produced 4 million drones by the end of the year. He contrasts this with reports of poor quality, indigenously produced Ukrainian ammunition (shells) which mirror similar problems with North Korean shells and mortar bombs. Jonathan believes this is something that Ukraine will need to address.
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Ukrainian Defence Expo 2025
🎦 29:25-33:00⏩
Jonathan reports on the Defence Tech Innovations Forum 2025 in Ukraine. He highlights a new Ukrainian missile, the Trampita (similar to an S-6), which has a range of 200km and carries a 20kg warhead, adding that this is the equivalent of two TM-62 anti-tank mines. The cost of the missile is $4,000 which Jonathan believes is very cheap. He continues to discuss a range of innovations, including a Lancet analogue, Blava, and a ground-based kamikaze drone that uses TM-62 mines as wheels which Jonathan believes is very clever. The WALL-E 7.62 combat module is also highlighted.
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German Peacekeepers
🎦 32:43-32:56⏩
Jonathan discusses Friedrich Merz's (potential next German chancellor) rejection of German involvement in a peacekeeping force in Ukraine which has been proposed by the UK and France.
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Russian Military Innovation
🎦 33:01-33:29⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has created a ground based drone equipped with a homemade MLRS that is capable of firing six rockets.
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Wrap up
🎦 33:30-36:12⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers and reminds them about his interview with Irina from Jigar's Port at 1pm tomorrow. He promotes his fundraiser for Jigar's Port for Mavic drones, explaining that he needs to raise $17,500 towards a target of $300,000. He explains that Jigar's Port is run by a Ukrainian couple, Dimko, a soldier in the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, and his wife, Irina, adding that he visited them in Lviv and was given a Jigar's Port patch and a 7.62mm NATO carton. Jonathan ends the video.
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