Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"I don't know if it's right to talk about success if you lose people."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has had a crazy busy day working from 7:30am to 11:30pm. He hopes today will be less crazy but there is a lot of news to cover in this update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Hits and Losses
- Ukraine claims 620 Russian personnel were liquidated, 3 tanks, 8 APCs, 16 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 17 drones, 30 vehicles/fuel tanks and 3 special equipment were destroyed. Jonathan believes these figures are credible and indicative of trends.
- Video footage from the frontline K2 battalion commander suggests they suffered 30 wounded while the Russians lost around 600 at a strategic position near Bakhmut. A 20:1 loss ratio.
- Prigozhin, head of Wagner PMC, is furious about the losses Wagner is taking, blaming lack of ammunition. He stands in front of a field of dead Wagner soldiers threatening Shoigu and Gerasimov to get ammunition or they will withdraw from Bakhmut by May 10th.
Fires and Attacks in Russia
- A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone was shot down over Kyiv by Ukrainian forces after it went out of control. Some confusion over the incident.
- An An-124 transport plane was destroyed and another damaged in a drone attack on an airfield in Bryansk. These aircraft cost $70m each and Russia only has 12 in working condition. Significant loss.
- Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed a Russian ammunition and fuel depot in Luhansk. Activity increasing in this area.
- Russia is struggling with many fires including a blaze taking over a village in Tyumen region, an army registration and enlistment office burning in Novgorod, a turbine factory fire in Yekaterinburg, and a big fire in Moscow.
- The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar was attacked again, this time by sabotage rather than drones. The 5th oil storage tank was blown up.
Military and Humanitarian Aid
- 8 Ukrainian doctors were killed and a few injured when Russians hit their medical brigade in the east. All their supplies were burnt.
- The mayor of Odesa has been arrested in an ongoing corruption case as Ukraine tries to reduce corruption to progress EU accession and secure aid.
- The Czech Foreign Minister stated they will supply weapons to Ukraine until it reaches the 1991 borders.
- Israel has provided an early air defence warning system to Ukraine which is now operational.
- The EU will allocate up to €80m to Greek defence companies to produce ammunition for Ukraine.
- Production of the Ukrainian Bohdana self-propelled howitzer artillery system has been ramped up. It has a range of 35-60km depending on ammunition.
- The British-French Brimstone missile system is now active on the frontline in Zaporizhia and Donetsk. The truck-mounted launchers can fire 8 missiles.
- Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operators as part of the Army of Drones project. Having hundreds of drones supporting the upcoming counteroffensive could be a huge advantage and cause panic in the Russian forces.
Geopolitics
- US intelligence chief Avril Haines states Russia is unlikely to be able to launch a significant offensive in Ukraine this year due to lack of troops and ammunition.
- A scuffle broke out between Ukrainian and Russian politicians at the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Parliamentary Assembly in Turkey when the Russian snatched a Ukrainian flag.
- President Zelensky visited The Hague and stated they are preparing for the counteroffensive with the whole of Ukrainian society, factories and entrepreneurs working to strengthen the army. He is confident they will achieve results but doesn't know if you can talk about success if people are lost.
- The EU is seeking to target third party countries, likely in Central Asia, that are helping Russia evade sanctions.
Wrap up
It has been a bumper news day which Jonathan thinks is reflective of the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive. He apologises for the length of the update and thanks viewers for watching.
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