Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"This is what liberation looks like, this is what freedom looks like in Russia, absolutely horrendous, isn’t it? The idea of liberating a country – we liberate you by flattening your towns and cities and killing your civilians. That is true liberation, we're going to liberate you from life and order and structure and culture."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update. He reminds everyone about the breaking news update concerning a significant explosion at the Toropets Ammo Depot 500km inside Russia. He settles in with a cup of tea.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report
🎦 00:31-05:08⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses from the previous day, noting the usual caveats.
- Personnel losses remain high, exceeding replacement rates, estimated at 30,000 recruits per month.
- Putin's decree to expand the army by 180,000 could have significant economic and social consequences if followed by a general mobilisation.
- Such a mobilisation would negatively impact the Russian economy and likely trigger social unrest.
- Jonathan analyzes the potential repercussions of a mass mobilization, emphasizing the strain it would place on resources, training, and public sentiment.
- He highlights the equipment shortages and economic consequences that would follow, potentially weakening Russia's war effort in the long run.
- Other losses are below average, with 6 tanks, 3 AFVs, 25 artillery systems, 45 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 18 pieces of special equipment destroyed.
- Jonathan notes an increase in videos of captured Russian soldiers in the Kursk region, suggesting a shift in momentum back in Ukraine's favour.
Impact of KAB-500 Bombs
🎦 06:14-06:57⏩
- Jonathan emphasizes the devastating power of Russian KAB-500 bombs, illustrating their impact with footage of a massive crater.
- He contrasts their size and destructive force with smaller munitions like mortar rounds and artillery shells, emphasizing their role in collapsing trench systems.
Russian Towed Artillery Depletion (Covert Cabal Analysis)
🎦 06:58-11:23⏩
- Jonathan delves into Covert Cabal's analysis of depleted Russian towed artillery stockpiles based on satellite imagery.
- Pre-war, Russia had 14,486 pieces of towed artillery, now reduced to 6,134.
- Excluding mortars, the numbers drop from 11,876 to 6,134.
- Jonathan credits "Heimarsd" on Twitter for their detailed breakdown of the data.
- He explains that while 50% of non-mortar artillery remains, Russia is rapidly depleting its larger, more modern, and capable artillery pieces.
- Only one-third of these larger systems, such as the 2A36 and 2A65 (built in the 1970s and 1980s), are left.
- Jonathan emphasizes that older, less capable artillery from the 1940s and 1950s, like the D1 and D20, will likely replace these losses, ultimately degrading Russian artillery capabilities in Ukraine.
- He projects that Russia will face significant challenges sustaining its artillery firepower as the war continues.
Ukrainian Air Defense Success and Drone Strikes
🎦 12:11-14:47⏩
- Jonathan reports on the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses, intercepting 46 out of 52 Russian drones during a recent attack.
- Five drones were neutralized by electronic warfare, and one returned to Russia, suggesting a 100% success rate in thwarting the attack.
- Ukrainian forces also neutralized three Russian Kh-59/69 missiles.
- He mentions several Ukrainian drone strikes on targets within Russia, including an attack on warehouses storing lubricants in Yaroslavl and strikes in Zelenograd, northwest of Moscow.
Ammunition Depot Strikes: Mariupol and Toropets
🎦 14:47-23:26⏩
- Jonathan discusses Ukrainian strikes on ammunition depots, highlighting two locations: Mariupol and Toropets.
- He acknowledges conflicting reports about the number of depots hit in Mariupol, emphasizing the fog of war.
- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of Vuhledar, which, under Ukrainian control, enables strikes on Mariupol using weapons like the Atakum with an 84km range.
- Shifting to Toropets, he analyzes the massive explosion at the 107th Arsenal, a primary ammunition depot for the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate.
- Jonathan cites FIRMS data showing the extensive damage from the blast, registering 2.8 on the Richter scale with seven aftershocks.
- He presents footage of the aftermath, with secondary explosions still occurring hours after the initial strike.
- Jonathan dismisses Russian claims of falling debris from intercepted drones, highlighting the regime's consistent reliance on disinformation.
- He speculates on the contents of the depot, potentially including air defense systems, North Korean missiles, and Grad rockets.
- The scale of the explosion suggests a potentially severe blow to Russia's artillery and missile capabilities, with far-reaching consequences for their ability to sustain the war effort.
Toropets Aftermath and Ukrainian Cyber Warfare
🎦 23:26-24:07⏩
- Jonathan marvels at the scale of the Toropets explosion, noting that the blast was visible from space.
- He highlights a remarkable act of Ukrainian cyber warfare: replacing the image on the Toropets municipal district's website with a photo of Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.
Speculation on Weapon Used in Toropets Attack
🎦 24:07-25:16⏩
- A user comment prompts discussion about the possibility of Ukraine using a new jet-powered drone, the "Palencia," in the Toropets attack.
- Jonathan considers the implications if this is true, suggesting it might signify a shift in Ukrainian strategy.
- He highlights that developing domestically produced long-range strike capabilities could grant Ukraine greater operational independence, reducing reliance on Western allies for weapons systems like ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles.
Russian Troop Morale and Health Issues
🎦 25:16-26:31⏩
- Citing a report from Ukrainian sources, Jonathan discusses reports of illness and potential poisoning among Russian troops in the Kharkiv region, specifically around the village of Hlyboke.
- He attributes this to the poor quality of food, water, and overall living conditions faced by Russian units.
- This highlights the challenges faced by Russia in maintaining the morale and combat effectiveness of its troops, who are already struggling with low morale and psychological strain.
Analysis of Potential Mossad Operation Targeting Hezbollah
🎦 26:31-31:22⏩
- Jonathan digresses to analyze a reported Mossad operation targeting Hezbollah, drawing potential parallels to the situation in Ukraine.
- He details how, according to reports, Mossad allegedly intercepted a shipment of 3,000-4,000 pagers intended for Hezbollah. The devices were reportedly routed from Taiwan through Europe.
- Mossad agents are suspected of tampering with the pagers by replacing the batteries with explosives and a remote detonation mechanism.
- When activated, the pagers detonated, causing injuries, primarily eye damage, to numerous Hezbollah members.
- Jonathan discusses the potential logistics and supply chain implications of this operation.
- He questions whether Ukraine could employ similar tactics, acknowledging the ethical complexities and potential for blowback associated with such covert operations.
- He ponders the broader ramifications of this event for security measures and the potential for copycat attacks.
Vovchansk: Before and After the "Liberation"
🎦 31:22-32:11⏩
- Jonathan shifts back to the war in Ukraine, highlighting the stark before-and-after images of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region.
- He contrasts the once-beautiful town with its current state – an utterly destroyed hellscape.
- He criticizes the Russian concept of "liberation" as nothing more than the annihilation of Ukrainian towns and cities and the murder of civilians.
Wrap up
🎦 32:11-32:11⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and says goodbye.
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