Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update, Russian Counter-Counters?
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"The Ukrainians are acting as though this is the phase zero of a counteroffensive, and they're just going through that attritional phase that they would usually conduct by air. And I think we're just seeing more of that and then they are not committing those ground forces in the way that we might have expected. They have adapted."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is wearing a new t-shirt from Country of Peace, a charity run by Valeria in Ukraine. He encourages viewers to check out their website countryofpeace.com and the interview he did with Valeria.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Arrest of Igor Girkin
The top news is that Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian war blogger, has been arrested in Russia and charged with extremism. His wife announced this on his Telegram channel. Girkin has been a constant critic of the Russian MOD, often with valid points, despite being a terrible person who wants Russia to win the war. Jonathan is surprised this arrest didn't happen sooner given Girkin's open criticism of Putin recently, which is a "big no-no".
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Frontline Update - Kupyansk Area
- Suryat Maps has made changes showing Russian defensive lines closer to Lyman Pershyi. It seems Russians withdrew from positions taken in June, although Jonathan doubts they ever really held those.
- Fighting is taking place north and west of Senkivka, but the settlement itself has not been captured.
- Russians admitted to just recently taking control of a railway station north of Senkivka.
- Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Masiutivka and on the Kupyansk-Lyman line.
Novoselivka Area
- Geolocated footage shows Russian forces have advanced across the P66 highway at Novoselivka.
- Ukrainians are using drones to drop grenades on Russian positions south of Novoselivka.
- There are conflicting claims about whether Novoselivka is under Russian control, in a "grey zone", or still contested.
- Russians are trying to advance from the railway on the eastern side of Novoselivka that they control, to surround the settlement.
Kreminna-Bilohorivka Area
- Russians have made gains in the forest west of Kreminna.
- Ukrainians were in this forest and tried to counterattack but have not succeeded yet.
- Suryat Maps shows large Russian gains west of Novovodyane, separate from the Karmazinivka salient.
- Russians crossed the Zherebets River from Novovodyane and Karmazinivka, creating two bridgeheads for future offensives.
Bakhmut Area
- Suryat Maps shows some Ukrainian gains north of Bakhmut, catching up with other reports.
- Heavy fighting continues near Klishchiivka, with conflicting claims about who controls the high ground.
- Geolocated footage shows Ukrainians have advanced in the Klishchiivka forest.
- Russian sources admit Ukrainians are putting heavy pressure on Russian positions around Bakhmut with artillery. One says "everything is burning" and they are waiting for air support.
- Ukrainians destroyed a large Russian assault group west of Andriivka, including a tank.
Avdiivka-Donetsk Area
- Russians regained ground near Vesele, reversing earlier Ukrainian gains. Fighting continues around Avdiivka as usual.
- The Krasnohorivka mine that Russians assaulted is likely no longer under their control after heavy Ukrainian artillery strikes forced them to withdraw.
- Ukrainians attacked with a company-sized force near Vuhledar but made no confirmed gains. Half the city was hit by Russian guided bombs.
Zaporizhzhia-Kherson Area
- Ukrainians made minimal advances north of Robotyne and are accumulating troops in this area.
- A Ukrainian National Guard spokesperson claimed they are advancing several hundred meters per day on the Melitopol direction and entrenching themselves.
- Ukrainians secured positions near Lobkove and entered the southern part of Kamianske, although Russians may have recaptured some positions.
- 58 Russian soldiers from the "2nd Army in the world" reportedly surrendered near Robotyne recently.
- No news about the Antonivsky Bridge area - assumed to be "business as usual".
Wrap up
More granular news is coming out of Bakhmut about overt Ukrainian successes. However, the limited size of Ukrainian attacks in other areas (like using just 1 tank and 1 IFV near Vuhledar) suggests they have changed strategy and are still in an attritional "phase zero" of the counteroffensive, rather than committing large ground forces as expected. Jonathan apologizes if the video seems disjointed, as he had many interruptions while trying to record it. He has gotten a new laptop to help with the demanding software he uses for mapping and video production. He thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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