Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Putin's Speech, Finland in Nato, Oryx, & Mud
Table of Contents 📖
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"I mean, this is one of the main areas of consideration for Putin in terms of going to war in the first place. Being afraid of NATO expansionism, not wanting Ukraine to be a part of NATO and he's gone and invaded Ukraine and what's happened? Finland become part of NATO and they're right on the border with Russia with a massive Russian border and it looks like Sweden might also join NATO given the validation of Turkey and that means the Baltic Sea is a kind of no-go area for Russia, really."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an Ukraine War Update Extra providing additional insights into the war in Ukraine.
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Putin's Awkward Speech
- Putin gave an awkward speech to new diplomats in Moscow that was met with silence instead of applause
- He looked uncomfortable and ended up saying "all the best" in English before walking off
- This vignette may represent the Kremlin's crumbling power, whether intentional by the diplomats or not
Rasputitsa/Bezdorizhia (Mud Season)
- The spring thaw has led to very muddy conditions in Ukraine known as "Rasputitsa" in Russian or "Bezdorizhia" in Ukrainian
- This affects military maneuvers and the intensity of fighting on the front lines
- Lighter Ukrainian tanks may handle the mud better than heavier Western tanks like the Challenger
- The best tank depends on the specific environment and context it is used in
Russian Soldier Explains Poor Conditions
A captured Russian soldier explained to Ukrainian forces that in his brigade, they are being forced to storm positions despite heavy casualties, threats, and ammunition shortages. While anecdotal, this likely represents some of the issues Russian soldiers are facing.
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Russians Using Guided Air Bombs
According to the Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuri Ignat, Russia is using guided air bombs along the entire front line. To counter this, Ukraine needs long-range assets like the Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems as well as modern 4th generation aircraft like F-16s capable of firing long-range air-to-air missiles to threaten Russian aircraft.
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Role of Religion in Russian Propaganda
- Religion is being used for rhetorical and propaganda purposes in the Russian information space
- Quotes suggest "mercy will be more of a crime than murder" and "the Lord would never command us to forgive the enemies of God", providing loopholes for war crimes
- Russia's use of religion in this way will be studied after the war, as they have been leveraging it for over a decade now
Oryx's Documentation of Equipment Losses
- Oryx has been visually documenting Ukrainian and Russian equipment losses with the help of a team and crowdsourcing
- Each piece of destroyed/captured equipment has an image or video as proof, stored in a database
- As the war goes on, it takes longer to verify each new entry isn't a duplicate given the growing dataset
- While some double-counting may occur, this is likely offset by the many losses not photographed, so the numbers can be considered a conservative minimum
- This open-source intelligence is invaluable for tracking the war's progress
Finland Joining NATO
- Finland joining NATO is hugely significant and goes against Putin's goal of preventing NATO expansion
- It doubles the length of Russia's border with NATO and forces them to divert attention from Ukraine
- Finland has a very capable military with a large number of reservists, tanks, artillery, aircraft and naval assets
- Finnish soldiers are well-trained, equipped and motivated, effectively locking the door on Russia in northeastern Europe
- This also strengthens NATO's position in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions
Wrap up
Jonathan summarizes that the decision to invade Ukraine has spectacularly backfired for Russia in terms of preventing NATO expansion, protecting the Donbas, "denazifying" Ukraine, and eliminating Ukrainian identity. He believes it will go down as one of Russia's worst geopolitical decisions in modern history. Jonathan thanks his supporters and concludes the video.
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