Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"...you don't realize you're done until you're done and if this could be like this is me being maybe a bit hopium copium but it could be that the russians are in this you know two-thirds of the way through the lobster boiling in a pot no one quite realizes how much they've been degraded until you look at where they've come from and where they are now and you you then go oh right yeah oh no oh my goodness oh right, you're in trouble."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan MS Pearce welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - it is the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 23rd August 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses in personnel
🎦 00:10-01:53⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reported 1,190 Russian personnel lost the day before. This is a high number, consistently above what Russia is claiming to be recruiting. If Ukrainian and Russian numbers are accurate, Russians are losing more troops than they are recruiting. Jonathan explains that a number of those troops will go back to fight, even if badly injured. He also speculates that Russia might be exaggerating their recruitment numbers. He discusses the latest numbers on tanks, troop-carrying AFVs and artillery systems.
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Russian losses in equipment
🎦 01:53-02:52⏩
Jonathan notes a high number of troop-carrying AFVs lost by the Russians, potentially pointing to a number of attacks. He mentions a high number of artillery systems lost. Andrew Pereccia's loss list indicates a high ratio of Russian to Ukrainian combat asset losses. The Russians have lost a lot of trucks and civilian vehicles.
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Ukrainian drone usage
🎦 02:52-04:15⏩
Jonathan attributes the high number of Russian vehicle and fuel tank losses to Ukrainian drone operators. He explains that Ukrainian drones are more numerous, well-trained, and more resilient to electronic warfare than Russian drones.
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Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 04:15-06:58⏩
Jonathan continues analysis of equipment loss figures: the Russians lost more equipment than the Ukrainians. He points to Russian losses of air defense systems as particularly significant, as well as the loss of older howitzers and tanks. He notes the high number of civilian vehicles lost by Russia, indicating a shortage of military trucks, a problem they have had since the beginning of the war. He explains that the Ukrainians are being supplied with a range of logistical vehicles, which is helping them.
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Russian losses in the Kursk Region
🎦 07:58-09:14⏩
Jonathan analyzes the latest loss figures, noting the loss of three Ukrainian pieces of equipment, including a Plasen RP-3000 surveillance and comms set up. He then reports on a Russian rail ferry that was sunk by a Neptune missile. He highlights the loss of a Su-34, destroyed by a long-range strike, and another Su-34 damaged, likely a separate incident to the airbase strikes a few days prior.
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Russian losses in personnel and equipment (Kursk)
🎦 09:14-10:59⏩
Jonathan notes the loss of a T-90 tank, Russia's most modern and best tank. He says Russia is losing too many of those for their liking. He also notes a number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers, along with civilian vehicles, being lost by the Russians. This highlights a difficult day for Russia in terms of losses, both personnel and equipment.
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Chechen commander killed in Kursk
🎦 11:20-12:07⏩
Jonathan reports on the death of Chechen commander, Shustri, and around 30 other Russian soldiers in the Kursk region. He notes that Apti Aladnov, who is in charge of the Akhmat, is claiming that the Ukrainians are not advancing in the Kursk region, yet there are reports of Akhmat troops being captured or killed.
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Ukrainian Air Strikes in Kursk
🎦 12:07-13:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of Ukrainian aviation in the Kursk region, suggesting they have achieved air advantage. He believes the Ukrainians have been effective in degrading Russian air defenses. He reports on Ukrainian air force strikes using American GBU 39 bombs, targeting a drone control point, electronic warfare unit, and up to 40 Russian servicemen. He reinforces that these figures contribute to the Ukrainian general staff figures for personnel and equipment losses.
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Overnight Strikes
🎦 13:53-14:36⏩
Jonathan notes that the overnight strikes into Russia were fairly quiet, with a limited number of drones fired, most being intercepted. He points out that intercepted drones are those shot down, not those that malfunctioned or were disrupted by electronic warfare.
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Russian Missile Strikes
🎦 14:36-15:13⏩
Jonathan reports on two Russian ballistic missiles, likely from North Korea, that were fired into Ukraine, causing damage and fires in a wooded area. He points out that North Korean missiles are inaccurate and frequently fail to hit their target.
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Oil Depot Strikes
🎦 15:13-16:53⏩
Jonathan reports on a new drone strike on the oil depot in Prolotarsk in Rostov, which had been burning for five days. He discusses the potential for the drone strike to ignite kerosene stored nearby. He then updates on a fire reaching kerosene tanks, citing the potential for a large explosion.
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Russian Logistics
🎦 16:53-17:12⏩
Jonathan comments on the significance of the oil depot fire for Russian logistics. He highlights the potential impact on fuel supply for Russian forces.
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Ukrainian Air Defense
🎦 17:12-18:07⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian air defense, showing footage of a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter shooting down a Russian drone using a mounted machine gun. He highlights the Ukrainian use of various air defense tactics and equipment. He commends the Ukrainians for their efforts in shooting down drones without relying on expensive and scarce missiles.
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Rail Ferry Strike
🎦 18:07-18:52⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian strike on 30 fuel railroad carriages on a railway ferry in Kavkaz port in the Kerch Strait, likely by a Neptune missile. He explains that this was the last remaining railway ferry in operation and its destruction further impacts Russian logistics.
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Impact of the Attacks
🎦 18:52-19:31⏩
Jonathan discusses the cumulative effect of the strikes on Russian logistics, combined with sanctions. He wonders how much the Russians are being affected, citing the impact on the ruble and the price of hydrocarbons.
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Kursk and Russian Situation
🎦 19:31-21:11⏩
Jonathan discusses his recent interview on Silicon Curtain with Mace Gifford, Sean Pinner and Jonathan Fink, which explored the significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. He suggests that the Russians are in more trouble than people give them credit for and they are perhaps at a turning point. He uses the analogy of a lobster boiling in a pot, suggesting that the Russians are perhaps two-thirds of the way through and may not be aware of how much they have been degraded.
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Challenges for Ukraine
🎦 21:11-21:23⏩
Jonathan acknowledges that while the Russians may be in trouble, the Ukrainians are also facing difficult challenges. He highlights that it is not one-way traffic in the war.
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Kerch Strait and Neptunes
🎦 21:23-23:52⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the rail ferry strike on Russian logistics. He expresses his hope that the Ukrainians are producing Neptune missiles at scale and are making them more resilient to electronic warfare. He speculates that if the Ukrainians are capable of firing a TACMS at the Kerch bridge, they could also potentially use Neptunes to damage or destroy it. He argues that a Neptune strike in the middle of the railway bridge could significantly disrupt rail traffic.
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Marinovka Air Base
🎦 23:52-26:32⏩
Jonathan reports on the recent attack on Marinovka airbase and the difficulty in assessing the damage based on satellite imagery. He discusses the potential destruction of hangers and damage to airframes. He cites a Moscow Times report suggesting that each hangar had a parked plane.
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Russian Pilot's Analysis of Marinovka Airbase
🎦 26:32-28:42⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian pilot's analysis of the Marinovka airbase strike, which suggests that all operational aircraft had been flown away prior to the attack. The pilot also notes that the shelters at the airbase lacked adequate protection and that bureaucratic issues and corruption are hindering the building of proper shelters.
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Kadyrov Jr. and Golden Machine Guns
🎦 28:42-30:40⏩
Jonathan shares a humorous anecdote about Adam Kadyrov, son of Ramzan Kadyrov, shooting golden machine guns at a target while being watched by Putin.
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Tortured Ukrainian Prisoners of War
🎦 30:40-32:10⏩
Jonathan reports that over 150 bodies of tortured Ukrainian prisoners of war have been returned from Russian captivity since the beginning of the war. He notes the efforts of organizations collecting evidence of war crimes. He highlights the ease of proving war crimes in the current conflict due to widespread drone footage and surveillance.
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Russian Soldier Brutality
🎦 32:10-33:52⏩
Jonathan shares drone footage of Russian soldiers mutilating the body of a fallen Russian comrade. He points out that this is not the first time such behavior has been reported, and suggests that it is not unusual in warfare, but it is disturbing.
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Putin's Downplaying of the Kursk Incursion
🎦 34:03-34:42⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's continued downplaying of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. He notes that Putin listed Kursk last after Belgorod and Bryansk regions in his speech and then calmly discussed humanitarian issues without addressing the invasion. He believes the Russians are trying to normalize the situation, but that their response is not commensurate with the scale of the invasion.
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Russian Resources and Capabilities
🎦 34:42-36:41⏩
Jonathan continues the lobster boiling in the pot analogy, stating that the Russians are not responding with greater force because they lack the resources and capabilities. He argues that if they were able, they would be pulling reserves from across the country and throwing them at Kursk, but they are simply not able to. He notes that Putin's popularity is reportedly declining as a result of the current situation.
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Russian Troop Movements
🎦 36:41-37:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the Russian military command reportedly having to commit troops that were initially intended for an offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast to the defense in Kursk Oblast. He highlights that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast is putting pressure on Russian forces across the front line, particularly in the north.
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Military Chicken
🎦 37:41-38:20⏩
Jonathan describes the situation as a game of military chicken, where the Russians are advancing in Prokrosk and are not willing to give up troops to defend Kursk, and the Ukrainians are advancing in Kursk and are not willing to give up troops to defend Prokrosk. He questions which side will crumble first.
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Reasons for the Russian Advance in Prokrosk
🎦 38:20-39:53⏩
Jonathan discusses different reasons given for the Russian advance in Prokrosk, including a shortage of artillery shells, new tactics, and exhaustion. He quotes Ukrainian sources who report that Russian troops are outnumbered 4-1 in some areas, are not getting rest, and are facing difficult conditions.
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Challenges for Ukrainian Troops
🎦 39:53-41:02⏩
Jonathan highlights additional areas where Ukrainian troops are under pressure, including around Sribne forest and Severks, where there is a possibility of being surrounded. He reports on a lack of reinforcements and weapons in those areas. He also notes that the Ukrainians are having success in other areas, such as Chasiv Yar, where the Russians have reportedly pulled troops.
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Ukrainian Assault Brigade Offensive
🎦 41:02-44:26⏩
Jonathan reports on an offensive by Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade in the Kharkiv-Luhansk region, aimed at degrading the offensive potential of Russia's 20th Combined Arms Army. He highlights the strategic importance of the offensive, which is designed to take the initiative away from the Russians and force them to react. He commends the Ukrainian troops for their success in advancing against a superior enemy force. The attack, which reportedly lasted four days, resulted in significant personnel and equipment losses for the Russians.
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Wrap up
🎦 44:26-45:21⏩
Jonathan ends the video with a sign off, thanking viewers for their support and encouraging them to check out the Little Whiskey Shop in Stockbridge, owned by one of his supporters.
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