US Politics Election Extra: Harris-Trump Showdown Update
Table of Contents 📖
"You can't just stand up there and talk absolute bollocks like this and just lie to the audience where you can."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:50⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video about the US elections. He shares his observation that the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was more exciting and viewed by more people than the Republican National Convention (RNC), with more Republicans present than ever before at a Democratic convention. He also notes the increasing endorsements for Kamala Harris and the Democrats' attempt to appeal to centrist voters, independents, and Republicans.
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Democratic National Convention Analysis
🎦 00:50-02:26⏩
Jonathan highlights how Kamala Harris's speech aimed for the center ground, focusing on security, strength, and appealing to voters who may not know much about her. He also emphasizes the strategy of providing "permission" for Republicans to support Harris by emphasizing patriotism, strength in foreign policy, and a broad-tent approach. He cites an example of Republican Governor Jeff Duncan's statement urging voters that they don't need to be a Democrat to vote for Harris, but rather, a patriot.
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Trump's Low-Energy Speeches
🎦 02:26-03:14⏩
Jonathan observes that Trump is delivering low-energy speeches, potentially influenced by the poor polling results. He contrasts this with the active campaigning efforts of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
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Shift in Battleground States
🎦 03:14-04:36⏩
Jonathan highlights the shift in battleground states, with Georgia and North Carolina now in play due to increased enthusiasm and support for the Democrats. He sees this as creating multiple pathways for Harris to win the presidency. He also emphasizes the importance of campaigning in Georgia and generating local enthusiasm.
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Harris's Media Strategy
🎦 04:36-05:24⏩
Jonathan suggests that Harris's campaign should focus on local TV interviews to increase visibility and voter turnout in Georgia and other key states. He also notes that a planned CNN interview is a good start, but local media engagement is crucial.
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Harris's Polling Numbers
🎦 05:24-06:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the positive early polling data showing a bounce for Harris after the DNC, with some polls reporting a 7-point lead over Trump. He emphasizes the significance of this lead compared to Biden's polling numbers, acknowledging that it's still early days in the campaign.
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Favorability Ratings Among Young Voters
🎦 06:13-07:02⏩
Jonathan analyzes favorability ratings among 18-29-year-old voters in swing states, revealing exceptionally high favorability for Harris and her running mate Tim Walz. In contrast, Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance have significantly lower favorability ratings, presenting a challenge for their campaign.
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Average Polling Data
🎦 07:02-08:10⏩
Jonathan examines the average polling data from 538, highlighting a divergence in favor of Harris since she became the Democratic nominee. He notes that the average is currently around 3.4% in her favor and emphasizes the significant increase in individual polls, which were not seen before Harris became the nominee. He warns against becoming overconfident, recalling Hillary Clinton's downfall.
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FBI Update on Trump Assassination Attempt
🎦 08:10-09:13⏩
Jonathan shares an FBI update on the suspect involved in the assassination attempt on Trump. He notes that the suspect conducted numerous searches for both Biden and Trump before the attack, suggesting a possible intent to assassinate both candidates. This indicates that the attempt wasn't ideologically driven.
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Nevada Polling Data
🎦 09:13-09:50⏩
Jonathan discusses Nevada polling data, showing a 6-point lead for Harris. He mentions the withdrawal of third-party candidate Kennedy, who endorsed Trump, and the uncertainty regarding the impact of his endorsement. It's unclear whether Kennedy voters will return to their original party, vote for a different third-party candidate, or write in a name on the ballot.
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Gallup Survey on Labor Union Approval
🎦 09:50-11:11⏩
Jonathan discusses a Gallup survey revealing that the majority of Americans approve of labor unions. He observes that approval ratings have been steadily climbing in recent years, reaching a high of 71%. He predicts that both political parties will try to court union support.
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Union Endorsements and Support
🎦 11:11-12:14⏩
Jonathan details union endorsements and support for the candidates. He mentions the Auto Workers Union's support for Harris, the Teamsters' endorsement of Trump at the RNC, and the potential endorsement of Harris by the police union despite its head attending the Trump rally. He suggests that the high approval ratings of unions might make it challenging for Republicans to use anti-union rhetoric.
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Harris's Fundraising
🎦 12:14-13:33⏩
Jonathan discusses Harris's fundraising efforts, highlighting a significant contribution of $19 million from Michael Bloomberg. Harris has now raised over half a billion dollars, exceeding the Republicans' fundraising significantly. Jonathan analyzes how this money will be used, including ad buys, particularly on Fox News, and digital advertising on platforms like TikTok.
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Grassroots Registration Efforts
🎦 13:33-14:14⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the importance of grassroots voter registration efforts for both parties. He mentions the "Pod Save America" team's goal of registering 75,000 people by September 14th. He stresses the need for door-knocking, telephoning, and engaging in voter outreach to maximize registration.
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Trump Indictment Update
🎦 14:14-15:20⏩
Jonathan reports on the revised indictment against Trump related to the Capitol storming case. He explains that the indictment was revised due to a Supreme Court ruling regarding the immunity of former presidents, but it remains strong. The indictment accuses Trump of conspiracy to defraud the state, interference with official procedures, and violating citizens' rights.
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GOP Efforts to Challenge Election Results
🎦 15:20-17:43⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the GOP's efforts to challenge and overturn election results. He highlights reports by Rolling Stone and American Doom revealing how Georgia election officials are implementing new rules designed to give them more power to arbitrarily refuse to certify election results. He mentions the role of attorneys ready to challenge results in close states like Georgia. Jonathan cites emails showing that Trump supporters on the Georgia State Election Board solicited input from conservative county election officials regarding the materials needed for certification.
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Concerns Regarding Voter Suppression
🎦 17:43-20:14⏩
Jonathan shares concerns about voter suppression efforts in Georgia and across the country. He cites an interview with lawyer Mark Elias, who is working to combat voter suppression efforts by the GOP. He discusses SB 189, a new Georgia law that makes it even easier to challenge voters and harder for counties to reject those challenges. Jonathan emphasizes that this is a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise voters and points out that Republicans have a history of such tactics.
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US Economic Statistics
🎦 20:14-21:17⏩
Jonathan discusses positive economic statistics for the US, which could strengthen the Harris-Walz platform. He highlights that strong economic performance should benefit an incumbent government, but he acknowledges that Republicans will likely try to paint a negative picture of the economy. He emphasizes that inflation, while a concern, is relatively low compared to other countries, but public perception is crucial.
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Oil Trading and Geopolitical Strategy
🎦 21:17-22:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the Biden administration's recent purchase of 2.5 million barrels of oil for the strategic oil reserve. He praises this as a brilliant economic and geopolitical move, as it helps control inflation, keeps energy prices down, and undermines Russia's attempts to manipulate energy markets. He highlights the administration's success in selling oil from the reserves at high prices and then buying it back at lower prices.
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Trump's Energy Policy Claims
🎦 22:57-24:37⏩
Jonathan debunks Trump's claims about buying Venezuelan oil, citing data from Steve Ratner showing that Trump's monthly imports from Venezuela were six times higher than Biden's. He also highlights the fact that oil, gas, and renewable energy production in the US are at all-time highs, making America more energy independent than ever before.
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Trump's Dictatorship Remarks
🎦 24:37-24:56⏩
Jonathan criticizes Trump's repeated claims about wanting to be a dictator to achieve his goals, specifically building a wall and drilling for oil. He points out that these claims are nonsensical given that America is already drilling more than ever before.
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Trump's Treatment of Police Union Chief
🎦 24:56-25:43⏩
Jonathan describes an incident where Trump kicked a police union chief off the stage at a rally, expressing some sympathy for the officer who was speaking for too long. He notes that this incident is not an isolated one, as Carrie Lake, who is running for senator in Arizona, was also kicked off the stage by Trump for speaking too long.
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J.D. Vance's Lack of Charisma
🎦 25:43-33:21⏩
Jonathan criticizes J.D. Vance, Trump's running mate, for his lack of charisma and his awkward interactions with voters. He contrasts Vance's performance with Tim Walz's more personable and engaging style. Jonathan provides an example of Vance's awkward interaction at a donut shop, where he struggled to connect with the owner and other customers. He highlights how Vance's stilted and scripted approach makes him a poor choice to enthuse voters.
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Vance's Anti-Teacher Remarks
🎦 33:21-34:38⏩
Jonathan criticizes Vance for his disparaging comments about teachers and Democratic leaders who don't have children. He mentions a clip where Vance criticizes teachers, calling them "brainwashers" and making insensitive remarks about their lack of children. He notes the backlash Vance received for these comments, including a response from Randy Weingarten, head of the teachers' union, calling Vance's remarks "gross, sad, and insulting."
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Democratic Endorsements and Republican Absence
🎦 34:38-36:18⏩
Jonathan contrasts the strong endorsements for Harris at the DNC, including prominent Democrats like Joe Biden, Barack and Michelle Obama, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, with the lack of high-profile endorsements for Trump at the RNC. He mentions the absence of former presidents, vice presidents, and even Trump's own vice president, Mike Pence, who is not endorsing him. He highlights the contrast between the Democratic convention, which featured multiple Republican speakers, and the Fox News coverage, which didn't air a single second of their speeches.
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RFK Jr.'s Endorsement of Trump
🎦 36:18-38:55⏩
Jonathan discusses RFK Jr.'s surprising endorsement of Trump. He shares Trump's previous negative comments about RFK Jr., stating that he'd prefer Biden over him and calling his anti-vaccine views "fake". He also mentions RFK Jr.'s wife's threat to divorce him if he endorsed Trump. Jonathan emphasizes the contrast between RFK Jr.'s public statements against Trump and his ultimate endorsement.
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Anti-Vax Sentiment and COVID-19 Deaths
🎦 38:55-40:26⏩
Jonathan discusses the higher prevalence of anti-vaccine sentiment among Republicans and the correlation with higher COVID-19 death rates in that demographic. He shares a report stating that almost twice as many Republicans as Democrats died from COVID-19, highlighting the impact of Trump's rhetoric on public health.
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Missing Republican Endorsements
🎦 40:26-43:27⏩
Jonathan discusses the absence of high-profile Republican endorsements for Trump at the DNC. He acknowledges that some believe these endorsements might be strategically timed for later in the campaign, citing the example of a letter signed by 238 former Bush, McCain, and Romney aides endorsing Harris and criticizing Trump.
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James Comey's Endorsement of Harris
🎦 43:27-43:57⏩
Jonathan shares the news of former FBI Director James Comey's endorsement of Harris. He cites Comey's statement praising Harris and emphasizing the importance of voting for candidates who prioritize the rule of law. This endorsement further highlights the lack of support for Trump within the Republican establishment.
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Stephanie Grisham's Speech at the DNC
🎦 43:57-46:56⏩
Jonathan discusses Stephanie Grisham's powerful speech at the DNC, where she exposed the coldness of the Trump family and their derisiveness towards supporters. He mentions her text message to Melania Trump on January 6th, urging her to tweet about peaceful protests, to which Melania replied with a single word, "no". Jonathan admires Grisham's courage in speaking out against Trump and the Trump family. He also contrasts this with Doug Emhoff's warm and supportive relationship with Kamala Harris.
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Debate Arrangements
🎦 46:56-50:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing debate about whether a debate between Trump and Harris will take place. He highlights Trump's initial reluctance to participate and his insistence on muted microphones. He analyzes the Harris campaign's statement, which criticizes Trump's attempt to back out of the debate and suggests that his team might be concerned about his ability to handle himself against Harris. He shares Trump's own statement about agreeing to the same debate rules as the CNN debate, which involved muted microphones. Jonathan notes that while Trump might prefer to have unmuted microphones, it's likely his own team wants him to avoid a debate due to concerns about his performance.
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Trump's New Campaign Strategy
🎦 50:30-54:26⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's new campaign strategy, which involves smaller, non-rally events and a more focused message. He shares an example of Trump's speech at the National Guard Association conference, where he focused on Ukraine, terrorism, and immigration. Jonathan criticizes this as low-energy and lacking the enthusiasm of his previous rallies.
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Trump's Claims of Solving Global Problems
🎦 54:26-55:09⏩
Jonathan criticizes Trump's claims that he would have prevented global inflation, the Hamas-Israel conflict, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, alluding to Trump's tendency to take credit for outcomes that he had no influence on. He also mocks Trump's claim that Iran was broke when he left office and that he was responsible for its current wealth.
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Trump's Climate Change Denial
🎦 55:09-57:52⏩
Jonathan critiques Trump's denial of climate change, highlighting his ridiculous statement about climate scientists being "lunatics" who didn't even go to school. He criticizes Trump's tendency to spread misinformation and dismiss scientific evidence, arguing that he should be challenged on such claims. Jonathan also highlights Trump's misrepresentation of the potential impact of climate change, claiming that the oceans will rise only a tiny amount in hundreds of years.
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Trump's Photo Op at a Military Cemetery
🎦 57:52-01:01⏩
:32
Jonathan discusses Trump's recent photo op at Arlington National Cemetery, where he gave a thumbs-up while standing at the graves of fallen military members. He criticizes this as a crass campaign stunt, highlighting the violation of cemetery rules prohibiting political activities. He also mentions reports of an altercation between Trump's staff and cemetery officials, who tried to prevent the photo op. Jonathan contrasts Trump's behavior with his past controversies surrounding military cemeteries, such as his decision to cancel a visit to a cemetery in Paris because of the rain.
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Wrap up
🎦 01:01:32-01:03⏩
:58⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with a summary of the key takeaways. He believes the GOP is struggling to unify and appeal to voters in the center, while the Democrats are doing a better job of taking the center ground and winning over Republican voters. He highlights the positive polling numbers for Harris, but acknowledges that there are still many questions to be answered regarding the outcome of the election. He emphasizes the importance of Harris's upcoming interviews and the potential debate with Trump, both crucial moments for shaping public opinion and influencing voter turnout. He wraps up by thanking viewers for their time and wishing them well.
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