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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Monday, 10th April 2023, 10:18
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"You know, it's a real scorched earth approach to warfare."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for April 10, 2023. He will be discussing the recent leaks in Pentagon documents in this video.

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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Russian Losses

  • Ukrainian figures claim 670 Russian personnel were lost on the previous day, an uptick from recent days but still below the 1000 mark seen previously
  • 1 tank, 4 APCs, 10 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 11 drones, 5 vehicles/fuel tanks, 2 special equipment lost
  • Leaked documents suggest Russia has suffered 189-223k casualties including up to 43k killed as of February, while Ukraine has suffered 124-131k casualties with up to 17k killed
  • Jonathan notes the difficulty in accurately assessing deaths and injuries in war, and uses the Ukrainian figures to identify trends rather than precise numbers


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Overnight News

  • Powerful explosions reported north of Melitopol, an area consistently targeted by Ukraine
  • Fire broke out in Kiev region after an explosion, possibly caused by Shahed drones, hitting a residential building
  • Russians fired two S-300 missiles at civilian infrastructure in Kostiantynivka according to Ukrainian military
  • Russia claims a fighter jet hit a bridge in Chernihiv oblast with a Kh-29 missile, which Jonathan questions the strategic value of


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Scorched Earth Tactics

  • Ukrainian Colonel General Syrskyi says Russia has switched to "Syrian scorched earth tactics" of destroying buildings and positions with airstrikes and artillery
  • Bakhmut is increasingly resembling Mariinka with widespread destruction
  • Conventional Russian army taking over from Wagner in Bakhmut area, going back to old doctrine of flattening cities then occupying the rubble
  • Russians carrying out large-scale logging in occupied Ukraine which will have catastrophic long-term environmental consequences, a "scorched earth" approach on top of destroying towns and cities


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Losses in Avdiivka and Mariinka

  • Russian military has faced huge losses of up to 400 soldiers per day recently near Avdiivka and Mariinka according to Ukrainian military spokesperson
  • UK intelligence says Russia has increased armoured assaults around Mariinka, expending significant resources for minimal gains, as the town commands approaches to Donetsk


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Wagner Brutality

Wagner forces have displayed a Ukrainian soldier's head on a stick in Bakhmut. This follows a video of a destroyed Ukrainian APC where Wagner troops apparently beheaded the dead Ukrainian soldiers inside before Russian troops arrived. Jonathan notes this brutality is what Ukraine is up against.

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Military Aid

  • First footage shown of British AS-90 self-propelled artillery arriving in Ukraine. 33 of these older but still useful guns are being provided.
  • Ukrainian civilians being trained in demining by Swiss army, a crucial need given the huge number of mines littering the country
  • Leaked documents claim Ukraine is severely depleted in air defense missiles like S-300s and will run out within a month. However, this may be an attempt to scare the West into sending more as Ukraine has received superior Patriot and SAMP/T systems and has other sources of resupply. The real issue is a lack of modern fighter jets.


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Geopolitics

  • Raiffeisen Bank International, an Austrian bank, and its Russian subsidiary have continued operating in Russia post-invasion, generating billions in profit. Recently they have faced some issues with loan write-offs for Russian soldiers and investigations into sanction breaches. The bank's leadership has called its critics "morally arrogant".
  • Jonathan criticizes the hypocrisy and "reverse projection" of this view, noting President Zelenskyy, who is definitely not in a "risk-free comfort zone", has been one of the bank's most vocal critics. He argues there needs to be more government and institutional pressure on companies still operating in Russia.
  • German Interior Minister says Germany may ban entry of Russian athletes to competitions even if governing bodies allow them, to avoid giving Putin a propaganda platform.


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Wrap Up

Jonathan appreciates the viewers and will aim to get out his usual three videos for the day. He signs off with "toodlepits, speak later".

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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand

The transcript was clear, no major issues in understanding the content. A couple of very minor spelling mistakes/typos but nothing that impacted comprehension.

🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process

Steps: Extract video title, date and part from the YouTube title Identify key topics discussed in the video and summarize each one Select a profound or poignant quote from Jonathan Note anything that was unclear in the transcript Use the provided XML structure to format the response Review summary to ensure all key points are covered and it flows well

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Summaries based on original content from Jonathan MS Pearce

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