Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video and reminds viewers that this video is a bit belated because it's UK election day tomorrow. He will be doing a live stream this evening with some election chat and predictions and dipping into some manifestos.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses 02/07/2024
🎦 00:33-02:05⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the 02/07/2024 noting that they should be treated with caution:
- Personnel: 1188 (high)
- Tanks: 16 (high - variation in numbers noted)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 17 (about average)
- Artillery Systems: 57 (very high - more than 3 times average)
- MLRS: 1
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 2
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 63 (very high)
- Special Equipment: 12 (high)
Del's Russian Losses Workbook
🎦 02:05-07:04⏩
Jonathan shares an update from contributor Del who has updated his Russian equipment losses workbook, which is available in the video description. Del has added mean/mode and median averages for each equipment category, which helps to provide additional context to the daily figures, by comparing them to historical losses. Jonathan notes how the average daily losses have increased over time and reviews the graphs Del has created.
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Russian equipment cannibalisation
🎦 07:04-09:35⏩
Jonathan discusses an analysis of satellite imagery of Russian equipment storage bases that indicates that Russia is cannibalising BM-21 Grad MLRS to create modernised BM-21 Tornado-G systems. Jonathan shares a video from researchers Kobut Kabal showing how launch tubes are removed from Grads to create the modernised Tornado-G system, which leaves the chassis without a purpose. The report reviewed images from several Russian bases and concluded that approximately 40% of BM-21s had been cannibalised.
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Overnight Russian Strikes - General
🎦 09:35-10:03⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia attacked targets inside Ukraine with missiles and Shahed drones.
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Dnipro Attacks
🎦 10:03-14:34⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia attacked Dnipro with missiles and drones this morning (03/07/2024).
- Ukrainian Air Defences shot down 1 out of 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 4 out of 4 Kh-59s and 5 out of 5 Shahed drones.
- Jonathan questions whether the low number of Shahed drones used in this attack, and in recent days, is due to a shortage in Russian stocks. Three warehouses containing Shahed and other drones have been destroyed in recent attacks.
- Jonathan shares footage of a shopping centre in Dnipro being hit, which Jonathan describes as "pretty horrific stuff".
- At least 4 people are reported dead and 34 injured with two in a serious condition.
Kharkiv Attacks
🎦 14:34-15:05⏩
Jonathan reports that Kharkiv was also attacked last night and this morning. Images shared from the prosecutor's office indicate that aviation was used and guided glide bombs are suspected. Jonathan believes that Russia has switched to using guided glide bombs around Kharkiv because their S-300s have been taken out in Belgorod.
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Novorossiysk Attacks
🎦 15:05-17:19⏩
, 17:39-18:14⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Novorossiysk with maritime drones. Jonathan has been waiting for this and expresses his opinion that the Ukrainians should be using many more drones in any attack to overwhelm Russian defences. Using just 2 or 3 drones at a time will not inflict much damage.
- Russian MOD released footage claiming to show the destruction of two Ukrainian naval drones in Novorossiysk.
- Jonathan believes that Russia will only share footage of unsuccessful attacks and that there may be damage to ships or other port infrastructure.
- Jonathan notes that explosions in port areas where there are lots of ships and ammunition can be dangerous.
- The footage shows naval drones being engaged by autocannon and possibly ATGMs.
- Jonathan shares a comment from Tim White stating that Ukraine launched the attack on Novorossiysk last night (02/07/2024). Most of Russia's Black Sea fleet has been moved to Novorossiysk following attacks on Sevastopol. The attack was launched by unmanned boats "presumably Ukrainian Sea Babies" according to Tim White. Social media reports that explosions could be heard.
Belgorod Attacks
🎦 17:19-17:39⏩
Jonathan reports that Belgorod has also been targeted and footage of fires is being shared.
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Oskol - Electrometallurgical plant attacked 01/07/2024
🎦 18:25-18:48⏩
Jonathan reports that the Oskol Electrometallurgical plant in Belgorod Oblast was attacked on 01/07/2024 and that the damage was significant. Jonathan is unsure if there is any drone or satellite imagery of the attack.
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Ukrainian Mi-24 Attack Helicopter Destroyed
🎦 18:48-19:07⏩
Jonathan reports that a Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopter was destroyed in a Russian missile attack. A Russian Iskander-M missile was used to target the helicopter and 4 support vehicles. The helicopter was located at a forward operating base that resembled an airbase, in Jonathan's opinion.
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Ukrainian Short Range Air Defence (SHORAD) Issues
🎦 19:07-21:07⏩
Jonathan is angry about the lack of Short Range Air Defence (SHORAD) which allowed the attack to be carried out. It is reported that the Russian drone responsible for adjusting the strike was active in the area for 3 hours. Jonathan is frustrated for the Ukrainians but appreciates that the sky is a big place and it can be difficult to detect and shoot down relatively small drones, especially over such a large area. Jonathan questions why Ukrainian air defence is not focused on protecting important assets like airbases, especially with the arrival of F-16s anticipated soon.
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German RST SLM Delivery
🎦 21:07-22:34⏩
Jonathan shares some good news - Germany has delivered 4 RST SLM (medium range) and 4 RST SLS (short range) systems to Ukraine. Jonathan shares a photograph of one of the RST SLMs which has markings on the side indicating that it has shot down 11 Shahed drones and approximately 20 cruise missiles. Jonathan shares his view that it is easy to quantify the cost of an interceptor missile compared to a cheap drone, however, you cannot quantify the opportunity cost of a successful attack e.g. a power station being hit by a missile that could have been intercepted.
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Ukraine Front Line Update
🎦 22:34-23:11⏩
Jonathan shares an update from Tim White - Russia has regained some ground in Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv, and on the edges of Chaviv Yar and Turetsk. Jonathan reiterates his earlier comments about Turetsk where a tactical blunder (two units rotated out at the same time) has allowed Russia to gain some momentum.
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USA to Allow Ukraine to Strike Russian Territory?
🎦 23:11-25:03⏩
Jonathan reports that the USA will allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia at a distance of more than 100km if Russia attempts to expand the front line. This was announced by US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien. Jonathan notes that the Biden administration has come under pressure to allow this but it seems that the use of longer-range weapons is still restricted even though two Ukrainian airbases have been hit recently, although this could be because one of the attacks was not as bad as initially thought (according to an analysis from Sukumimus). Jonathan thinks that allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russia if they expand the front line is "vague and arbitrary" and that the US should just let them attack Russian bases!
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Russian Crops Attacked
🎦 25:03-26:05⏩
Jonathan shares a picture of a burning wheat field in Kharkiv and comments about how Russia is deliberately targeting Ukrainian crops and agricultural land, particularly in Zaporizhia. Jonathan is angry about these attacks and believes that this is a tactic to reduce Ukrainian agricultural exports.
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Trump to Block Ukraine NATO Membership?
🎦 26:05-28:45⏩
Jonathan notes that Trump is considering a deal with Russia that would block Ukraine from joining NATO. Jonathan believes that this has come about because of Trump's earlier comments about his peace plan and is concerned that this would redefine the US role in NATO. Jonathan shares a comment from Anton Gerashchenko who says that there are concerns that Trump will significantly reduce US involvement in NATO and shift the burden onto European countries. This is interesting because NATO has just agreed to a $43 billion aid package for Ukraine, which Jonathan describes as huge and believes it is a move to mitigate against a possible Trump presidency. Jonathan is annoyed that the possibility of a Trump presidency could scupper this deal and describes the situation as a "poor silver lining to a cloud". Jonathan is also frustrated by Trump's apparent opposition to Georgia joining NATO and the lack of details in his plan to quickly end the war.
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NATO to Increase Ukraine Aid
🎦 26:49-27:41⏩
Jonathan reports that NATO has agreed a $43 billion aid package for Ukraine and this is a huge development. He believes that this could be the start of a shift to a more "NATO-led" approach to supporting Ukraine. This could include NATO taking over the Ramstein format (currently led by the USA) for discussions about military aid to Ukraine.
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Russian Teenager Jailed
🎦 28:57-29:37⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian teenager has been jailed for 12 years for sending money to the Ukrainian Army. He sarcastically comments about the situation.
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Sberbank Technical Issues
🎦 29:39-30:00⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia's largest bank - Sberbank is experiencing major technical issues, particularly in the east. Jonathan speculates that this could be related to Ukrainian hacking attempts.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:00-30:11⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them about his livestream later.
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"It's like, I'm going to just build these and build these until I've got loads, and just send them all at once and see what the computer does. That's the approach I would take to this, which is have 100 of these seababy drones, and then absolutely flood, if you like, that's probably the wrong word, the port area with these drones."
