Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It's only going to be marginally better, if at all, for the Russians... You know, this is costing the Russians too. We just got to hope that that ratio is beneficial for the Ukrainians in a serious way."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, the first part of his Ukraine War Update for Saturday 2nd March 2024. He notes his output will be dependent on family commitments.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses Report
🎦 00:26-03:59⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on 1st March 2024, noting the numbers are at the higher end of what has been seen previously, with significant losses of tanks (14), armoured personnel vehicles (29), and artillery systems (47) in particular. Jonathan highlights the data dashboard compiled by community member 'Bill', which provides averages for context. He observes that this was a difficult day for the Russians in terms of losses.
Return to top⤴️
Bill's War Statistics Dashboard
🎦 03:59-04:56⏩
Jonathan highlights the daily changes to occupied territory data that has been added to Bill's dashboard. This feature, similar to what is shown on WarMap, provides a useful graphical view of how the conflict has played out, and Jonathan expresses hope that Bill may collaborate with another community member, Dell, to combine their coding, website, and data analysis expertise to further enhance the dashboard.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Tank in Belgorod Oblast hit by FPV Drone
🎦 04:56-05:31⏩
Jonathan reports on a video showing a Russian tank in Belgorod Oblast being hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone, noting the strike itself appears to have been minor but that it is nonetheless significant given attempts to target Russian assets within Russia itself.
Return to top⤴️
The Kyiv Independent: Ukrainians near the front line say they pay the price for the West's hesitancy
🎦 05:31-08:11⏩
Jonathan discusses an article in The Kyiv Independent in which Ukrainians near the front lines, both troops and civilians, complain about the impact of ongoing Western hesitancy to provide sufficient military aid. He quotes Ukrainian soldier Mikhail Kovalenko as saying “_I believe in our armed forces... look how long they held Avdiivka. The problem on our side is a lack of weapons. Without air power Russia could not have taken the city… our soldiers are heroes. To stop Russia and its power is not easy_”. Jonathan notes how this chimes with his own assessments - that on the micro level, the situation for Ukraine is desperate and they are taking heavy losses, but on the macro level Russia is being attrited to a far greater degree than it can sustain in the longer term.
Return to top⤴️
The Kyiv Independent: Russia could break through defenses in summer, Ukrainian officials warn
🎦 08:11-09:43⏩
Jonathan discusses an article in The Kyiv Independent (referencing a Bloomberg article) in which Ukrainian officials warn that Russia could break through Ukrainian defences in the summer, potentially threatening cities such as Kramatorsk and Kupyansk. However, Jonathan notes that even if this were to occur, the Ukrainians will be in a much better position to resist following the arrival of significant quantities of Western military aid, including artillery shells, in the coming weeks.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Ukrainian Air Force dropping 'mini-hedgehogs' to disrupt Russian logistics
🎦 09:43-10:29⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have been using drones to drop “mini-hedgehogs” - improvised caltrops fashioned from the metal spikes used to hold up netting on construction sites - on Russian logistical routes. These are causing significant damage to tyres on Russian trucks and APCs, disrupting their logistics. Jonathan notes that whilst this is an effective tactic, he suspects the Russians will soon cotton on and begin employing similar methods themselves.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence of high Russian losses near Avdiivka
🎦 10:29-11:41⏩
Jonathan cites a video showing the aftermath of fighting near Avdiivka in which the bodies of approximately 40 Russian soldiers can be seen strewn around a destroyed Russian tank. He reiterates that whilst Ukrainian forces are under immense pressure and taking heavy losses, the Russians are suffering unsustainable casualties in return.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Another Russian aircraft shot down?
🎦 11:41-12:24⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that another Russian aircraft - potentially a Su-35 or Su-34 - has been shot down. Whilst he is unable to confirm this information, he notes the Ukrainian General Staff did report one aircraft lost in their daily report.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Open source intelligence reveals Russia may only have 5 operational A-50 aircraft remaining
🎦 12:24-14:38⏩
Following the reported destruction of another A-50 AWACS aircraft, Jonathan discusses the status of Russia’s remaining fleet, noting open source intelligence suggests only five are likely to be operational. Citing analysis by the Scheme Project, he reports that satellite imagery shows two were airborne from the Ivanovo Savanah Airfield in the past two weeks, with another photographed at the Taganrog South Airport, only 130km from the front lines in Donbas. Of the remainder, four were in plowed areas (suggesting they are ready for use), one in an unplowed area, and seven in storage without engines, likely cannibalized for parts.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian forces destroy elite Russian assault group near Avdiivka
🎦 14:38-15:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the elite Russian Pskov 15th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade assault group has been destroyed by Ukrainian forces near Avdiivka. He notes this was achieved through a combination of drone strikes and an ambush by a US-supplied Bradley IFV, describing the engagement as a “good use” of the vehicle.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Analysis of FPV drone usage
🎦 15:38-21:30⏩
Jonathan discusses data analysis compiled by community member ‘Daniel’ on the use of FPV drones in the conflict, noting Ukrainian strikes against Russian infantry and vehicles in particular have increased significantly. In January 2024, Ukraine overtook Russia in terms of the number of daily strikes against infantry, and by a significant margin, whilst the number of strikes against Russian vehicles dwarfs those against Ukrainian vehicles. Jonathan explains this is likely because Ukrainian forces are largely on the defensive and therefore present fewer targets, whilst Russian forces continue to attack in large, vulnerable columns. Daniel's analysis also shows that both sides are increasingly targeting enemy positions, such as trenches and dugouts. Jonathan notes that whilst Russia held an advantage in this area for a period, Ukraine has significantly ramped up domestic production (to the tune of 100,000 per month) and is now much closer to parity.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Baba Yaga drones being used to great effect
🎦 21:30-22:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of Ukrainian-made Baba Yaga drones, large octocopter drones capable of dropping larger munitions. Noting community member Andrew Perpetua's enthusiasm for the system, he describes how the drones are being used highly effectively, in many cases being mistaken for artillery fire by Russian troops on the receiving end.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Another Russian S-300 hit?
🎦 22:11-23:20⏩
Jonathan reports on a video purporting to show yet another Russian S-300 air defence system being hit by a Ukrainian strike, though he notes it is not possible to confirm whether the system was destroyed or even damaged. He observes that the increasing number of strikes against these systems suggests they are being brought closer to the front lines, and that Ukrainian forces are becoming more confident in their ability to operate in areas they would previously have considered too risky.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine: Drone and missile strikes overnight
🎦 23:20-28:06⏩
Jonathan reports on drone and missile strikes overnight on 1st-2nd March. These included:
- The downing of 14 Shahed drones by Ukrainian air defences.
- The shooting down of a Russian Su-34.
- A Russian drone strike on a residential building in Odessa, killing three (including a 3-month old baby) and injuring eight.
- Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv and Sumy.
Russia-Ukraine War: Attacks on Crimea
🎦 28:06-30:38⏩
Jonathan reports on significant Ukrainian strikes against targets in Crimea, including explosions in Yevpatoria, Saki, Sevastopol, and Mariupol. He notes that whilst Russian sources claimed the Kerch Bridge was targeted using Storm Shadow missiles, he considers this unlikely.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Aftermath of the Crimean strikes
🎦 30:38-31:42⏩
Jonathan reports that the strikes on Crimea are assessed to have damaged or destroyed three Ka-52 attack helicopters at a base near Simferopol, as well as hitting other targets including a secret facility in Sevastopol. He notes that Russian sources have sought to downplay the significance of these strikes.
Return to top⤴️
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian forces using JDAMs to strike Avdiivka Coke Plant
🎦 31:42-32:19⏩
Jonathan reports that following the capture of the strategically important Avdiivka Coke Plant by Russian forces, Ukrainian forces have for the first time used US-supplied JDAM guided bombs to strike the facility. He notes this is significant as it indicates a) Ukrainian aircraft are now able to operate in this area, suggesting Russian air defences may not be as effective as they have been previously, and b) that Ukrainian forces have seemingly overcome the jamming issues that initially hampered their use of JDAMs.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Overnight update
🎦 32:19-34:23⏩
Jonathan provides an update on events overnight within Russia itself, including:
- An explosion at a power substation in Yekaterinburg that feeds defence plants, possibly as a result of partisan activity.
- Confirmation from UK intelligence sources that Russia has likely grounded most of its A-50 fleet.
- Reports that Ukrainian forces are using inflatable M777 howitzer decoys to draw Russian Lancet loitering munition attacks.
- The emergence of a video purporting to show the crash site of a Russian Su-34 shot down near Mariupol.
- The discovery of another malfunctioning Russian Kh-35 cruise missile in Krasnodar.
Russia-Ukraine War: Russian soldier complains of punishments including being sent on suicide missions
🎦 34:23-34:46⏩
Jonathan reports on an intercepted communication in which a Russian soldier complains that one form of punishment meted out is to send troops on near-certain suicide missions - assaults on Ukrainian positions without helmets or body armour.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Funeral of Alexei Navalny
🎦 34:46-43:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Alexei Navalny's funeral, which took place yesterday. He recommends viewers watch the Oscar-winning documentary “_Navalny_”, noting how moved he was watching it, knowing Navalny had been murdered by the Russian state. He describes two scenes in particular: the first in which Navalny speaks to one of the scientists who poisoned him with Novichok, eliciting a confession, and the second in which he answers a question about what message he would like to send to the Russian people in the event of his death. Jonathan reflects on Navalny's character, noting how the documentary portrays him as a “decent human being” driven by a belief in democracy and a better future for all Russians. Turning to the funeral itself, he describes how thousands of Russians queued to pay their respects, chanting anti-war slogans such as “_Putin is a Murderer_” and “_Russia without Putin_”. He notes how significant this is, given the risks involved in such public displays of dissent.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Will public anger at Navalny's death lead to lasting change?
🎦 43:46-45:10⏩
Jonathan questions whether the public outpouring of grief and anger at Navalny's funeral will result in lasting change within Russia. He expresses pessimism, arguing that the iron grip the security forces exert on society, combined with the lack of a clear figurehead to rally around in Navalny's absence, makes this unlikely. He notes that whilst Navalny himself was adept at using social media to get his message across, his wife Yulia, whilst an important figure in the movement, lacks this same raw political ability.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Putin's speech, Gerasimov still missing?
🎦 45:10-46:59⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's recent two-and-a-half-hour speech, noting that whilst most senior Russian figures were present, General Gerasimov was conspicuous by his absence, adding further weight to the theory he may have been killed or seriously injured in the recent Ukrainian strikes on Crimea. He describes Putin's speech as “long and boring” and notes how a photo of an audience member apparently wearing a Ukraine flag on their lapel has become a meme on social media.
Return to top⤴️
Russia: Open Source intelligence reveals large numbers of Russian naval vessels in Sevastopol
🎦 46:59-47:26⏩
Jonathan discusses open source intelligence analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery of Sevastopol, which reveals large numbers of Russian naval vessels in port, including a bulk carrier loaded with stolen Ukrainian grain and a number of warships and submarines that have previously been targeted by Ukrainian forces.
Return to top⤴️
Social media censorship
🎦 47:26-49:17⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration at the seemingly arbitrary censorship being applied by social media platforms, noting that community member ‘JR’, who produces many of the maps featured in his videos, was recently banned from Twitter. He adds that he regularly has comments deleted on his own videos, despite these comments being entirely innocuous, and speculates that this may be the result of Russian trolls gaming the system.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 49:17-49:19⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
Return to top⤴️
