Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"The war in Ukraine has showed us the importance of drones, and drones are absolutely hassling many ships in the area. And here we have these rebels having access possibly to cruise missiles as well."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, promising a packed episode focusing on military aid and geopolitical news.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Telecoms Disruption
🎦 00:18-00:49⏩
Jonathan clarifies that the Kyivstar telecom outage, initially attributed to missile strikes, was likely caused by Russian hackers. While service is expected to resume shortly, it highlights Russia's ongoing cyberwarfare capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky's US Trip & EU Lawmakers' Appeal
🎦 00:49-01:58⏩
Ahead of a deeper dive into Zelensky's US visit, Jonathan reports that over 100 EU lawmakers are urging Congress to approve further Ukrainian aid. He anticipates potential pushback from some Republicans, questioning the level of European financial contributions. Jonathan highlights that several European nations actually surpass the US in aid as a percentage of GDP.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky's Strategic Messaging in the US
🎦 01:58-05:00⏩
Jonathan analyses Zelensky's strategic approach during his US visit, emphasizing the need for nuanced messaging to secure continued American support. Zelensky, Jonathan observes, is cleverly framing Ukrainian aid as mutually beneficial, highlighting opportunities for US defence companies and job creation. He cites Zelensky's meetings with US defence industry leaders and a proposed European defence hub in Ukraine as examples of this strategy.
Return to top⤴️
US Military Aid Update
🎦 06:14-06:52⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to upcoming US military aid packages, expressing concern over recent reductions in monthly contributions. He cites reports indicating a potential end-of-year package, hopefully exceeding $400 million, as well as a remaining $4.7 billion in allocated funds yet to be disbursed.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Propaganda Narrative
🎦 06:52-13:25⏩
Jonathan dissects a segment from the Solovyov show, a Russian propaganda outlet, revealing how they're spinning Zelensky's US visit and the potential for reduced aid as victories. He highlights their portrayal of the US as a declining hegemon, their praise for Trump's divisive presidency, and their assertion that Trump, if re-elected, would withdraw the US from NATO. Jonathan expresses concern over these narratives while acknowledging their potential appeal to certain factions within the US.
Return to top⤴️
Shifting Public Opinion on US Aid
🎦 13:25-14:46⏩
Jonathan emphasizes the need for the Biden administration to improve its communication strategy regarding US aid to Ukraine. He argues that presenting the economic and geopolitical benefits alongside the moral imperative would resonate more effectively with the American public, citing data showing increased support after such contextualization.
Return to top⤴️
Kamishin on Ukraine's Defence Industry
🎦 14:46-18:36⏩
Jonathan highlights an interview with Oleksandr Kamishin, the former head of Ukrainian Railways, now focused on bolstering Ukraine's domestic arms production. Kamishin underscores the opportunity for US defence companies to collaborate, stressing Ukraine's engineering talent, shortened innovation cycles, and the chance to test equipment in a real-world conflict. Jonathan sees this as a compelling message for both the US government and its defence industry.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine's 'Bogdana' Howitzer
🎦 18:36-19:16⏩
Jonathan reports on the successful production of 30 'Bogdana' self-propelled howitzers within Ukraine. He emphasizes their cost-effectiveness, being twice as cheap as French Caesars, and the significant involvement of Ukrainian enterprises and personnel in their manufacturing.
Return to top⤴️
Financial Aid: IMF, EU & Germany
🎦 19:16-20:47⏩
Jonathan covers a series of financial aid updates:
- The IMF will provide Ukraine with a further $900 million tranche.
- The EU is advancing a plan to transfer €15 billion in projected profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
- Germany has pledged to increase its aid to €8 billion next year.
UK & Norway Maritime Aid
🎦 20:47-22:17⏩
Jonathan details military aid from the UK and Norway:
- Two Sandown-class minehunters for the Ukrainian Navy.
- 20 Viking amphibious vehicles.
- 23 raiding vessels (of an unspecified type).
Jonathan, ever the joker, interjects with a humorous (if slightly groan-worthy) quip about the Norwegian Navy and barcodes.
Return to top⤴️
Polish 'RAK' Mortar Systems Arrive
🎦 22:18-23:21⏩
Jonathan reports on the arrival of the first Polish-made 'RAK' self-propelled mortar systems in Ukraine. He notes their ability to protect crews within the vehicle during firing and references a previous thread by Thomas Tyler detailing their development.
Return to top⤴️
Swedish Winter Aid Package
🎦 23:21-23:37⏩
Jonathan highlights Sweden's €120 million winter aid package, directed towards Ukraine's reconstruction via the World Bank, and crucial equipment for the nation's energy grid.
Return to top⤴️
Danish Reconstruction Efforts
🎦 23:37-24:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Denmark's focused approach to reconstruction, concentrating on water infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast and investing in local businesses for mutual economic benefit.
Return to top⤴️
United24 Ambulances
🎦 24:05-24:26⏩
Jonathan reports on the deployment of four additional armored ambulances purchased through United24, a fundraising platform, from Canadian partners. He expresses admiration for United24's impact on equipping Ukrainian forces.
Return to top⤴️
Migrant Raids in Russia
🎦 24:26-25:26⏩
Jonathan covers a concerning development in Russia, where a raid targeting migrants in Yekaterinburg resulted in detentions, forced DNA tests, and summonses to military enlistment offices. This aligns with previous reports of similar occurrences at the Finnish border.
Return to top⤴️
Foreign Fighters in Ukraine
🎦 25:27-27:06⏩
Jonathan notes the increasing prominence of foreign fighters within the Russian armed forces, as showcased by Russian media. While acknowledging the existence of pro-Russian volunteers, he questions the extent of their ideological alignment and the possibility of coercion, particularly concerning migrants. He believes the truth likely lies somewhere in between.
Return to top⤴️
Donald Tusk and Polish Support
🎦 27:06-28:36⏩
Jonathan discusses Donald Tusk's election as Poland's Prime Minister. He believes Tusk's strong pro-EU stance will ultimately benefit Ukraine by strengthening Poland's position within the EU. Jonathan commends Tusk's early statements calling for increased Western support for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Hungarian and Slovakian Opposition to EU Accession Talks
🎦 28:36-30:02⏩
Despite pressure from their own citizens in Ukraine, both Slovakia and Hungary have officially opposed the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine, a significant setback for the nation's aspirations.
Return to top⤴️
Austrian Opposition & Orban's US Visit
🎦 30:02-31:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Austria has joined Hungary and Slovakia in opposing the immediate start of Ukraine's EU accession talks, citing concerns over favouritism. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is in Washington seeking to undermine US support for Ukraine, appealing to American conservatives.
Return to top⤴️
US Bans Uranium Imports from Russia
🎦 31:26-32:05⏩
In a move welcomed by Jonathan, the US House of Representatives has voted to ban uranium imports from Russia. He sees this as a positive step towards reducing reliance on Russia and limiting its revenue streams.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine-Poland Border Blockade
🎦 32:05-32:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the temporary reopening and subsequent re-blockade of Ukrainian-Polish border crossings, causing disruption to the flow of goods. He expresses hope that Tusk's new government in Poland will prioritize resolving this issue.
Return to top⤴️
Houthi Missile Attack & Future Warfare
🎦 32:41-35:36⏩
Jonathan discusses the Houthi missile attack on a Norwegian-flagged, Israeli-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea, linking it to lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. He highlights the increasing accessibility and effectiveness of drones and missiles by non-state actors, posing a significant threat to global shipping and economic activity. Jonathan believes this represents a new challenge in warfare that demands attention.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 35:37-35:49⏩
Jonathan concludes the episode, thanking viewers for their time and support, and encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share his content.
Return to top⤴️
