Ukraine Conflict (20231123): Full Frontline Update

"So perhaps there's maybe a two-, three-year plan going on here. It's like, right, we're not going to bust through and have a really quick walk towards Berdyansk, but it's about getting an advantage here, eking out that advantage, that turning into advantage there, and that then turning advantage over here."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an overview of what the map key means for those new to his videos. He then dives straight into the frontline update, starting with the North Eastern sector.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

North Eastern Sector - Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna

• No change in the map, but still activity reported along this frontline
• Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Russian forces in the Kreminna direction may be completing a force regrouping and could soon increase the pace of offensive operations
• Russians have fairly strong forces in this area and around Lyman, although some have been moved further south
• Ukrainians trying to keep Russians in check around Kupyansk and Svatove
• Jonathan believes Ukraine needs more troops to succeed in pushing back and regaining territory, same for Russia. Until one side can amass enough troops and material, the frontline is likely to remain fairly static.

Return to top⤴️

Air Superiority and Defense

• Without air superiority, either side will find advancing difficult
• President Zelensky emphasizes air defense as the #1 priority for Ukraine for 5 key reasons:

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4
5. 5

• Jonathan would like to see air defense systems brought close to the frontline after protecting critical interior targets
• Continued supply of F-16s, weapons, and eventually Gripens needed, along with training and logistics - a potential 2-3 year plan to gain advantages and territory over time

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut Area

• Bielorivka (south of Kreminna): Significant difference between mappers Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps. If one shows movement and the other doesn't, more likely a map adjustment than a significant maneuver.
• Bakhmut: Not much to report according to ISW, just usual repelled attacks
• North of Zelenopillia (south of Bakhmut): Minor Ukrainian gains according to Suriat Maps. Minor Russian gains a bit further north by railway line between Andriivka and Kurdiumivka.
• Tough going around Klishchiivka area. Russians have considerable forces, Ukrainians fairly well positioned. Quantity has a quality of its own - if pounded endlessly, territory can be lost.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka Sector

• Between Bakhmut and Avdiivka: Ukrainian gains around waste heap according to Suriat Maps. Trench lines from 2014 on top of slag heaps Ukrainians are trying to take control of, but open to Russian mortar/artillery attack.
• Avdiivka:
  • Deep State Map shows minor Russian gains along tree lines by Stepove. Debated if Stepove is a grey zone or not.
  • ISW: Ukrainian spokesperson stated Russian forces significantly intensified operations near Avdiivka. 25-30% increase in Russian assaults over past day.
  • High Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses reported, reflecting increased tempo.
  • Russian forces conducted mechanized assaults with ~12 armored vehicles in Avdiivka direction. Ukrainians repelled, destroying 2 tanks and 7 AFVs.
  • Russian milbloggers claim successful surprise attack, quickly occupying 5 buildings in industrial zone on SE outskirts. Also claimed capture of Ukrainian defensive fortifications SW of industrial zone.
  • Russian aviation also intensified operations near Avdiivka. Artillery and airstrikes intensified on Ukrainian positions on N and S flanks.
  • Weather not currently impacting tempo of hostilities. Reduced foliage due to cold improving Ukrainian visibility against Russian infantry assaults.

Return to top⤴️

Marinka

• Ukrainian spokesperson: In past week, Russian forces stormed Ukrainian positions in Marinka direction over 150 times and launched over 300 strike drones
• Russians made some advances of a couple blocks according to Suriat Maps, less so per Andrew Perpetua
• Situation varies along the frontline - 300 Russian drone strikes in a week in Marinka, but elsewhere Ukrainians might have drone advantage
• Russians using nocturnal Lancet drones effectively against Ukrainians

Return to top⤴️

Southern Frontline

• Not much to report past Velyka Novosilka per ISW
• Robotyne area:
  • Suriat Maps shows small Ukrainian gains N of Novoprokopivka along tree line, giving Russians something to think about between Novoprokopivka and Robotyne
  • Couple more Ukrainian gains to N and W near Pyatykhatky per Suriat Maps, an area Russians have attempted to counter around
• Ukrainians grinding away until they can reconstitute and go again

Return to top⤴️

Kherson

• Jonathan believes Russians have successfully stabilized this area, though tight Ukrainian operational security could mean they are making unreported gains
• Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces are advancing into Krynky from the east
• Ukrainian analyst stated Russians narrowed Ukrainian bridgehead over Krynky in past days
• Elements of Russian 328th VDV attacking Krynky from Kozatske, constantly attacking along Ilovaisk-Novokondakove coastal road
• A challenging area that should have been one of great success for Ukraine, but they are struggling to make further advances at the moment

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

In summary, Ukrainians still under pressure in the usual places but eked out some minor gains up and down the country, though could be a lot of map adjusting rather than fundamental gains. The northeastern sector is one to watch as Russia may be preparing to flex its muscles there. Jonathan thanks viewers and asks them to like, subscribe and share as he really appreciates the support. He signs off saying he will speak to them soon.

Return to top⤴️