Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Ukraine Receives First F-16s!
Table of Contents 📖
“I think there's more scope to take on and lose F-16 pilots and planes than people might think, don't be like dooming that, you know if they lose five F-16s it's the end of the world, actually these are tanks of the sky right, or whatnot and you are going to lose them.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan MS Pierce welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, noting that it's a Ukraine War Breaking News Update.
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Ukraine receives F-16s - Bloomberg report
🎦 00:09-01:05⏩
Bloomberg has reported that Ukraine has received the first F-16 fighter jets, fulfilling a long-awaited transfer that could boost Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia. The number of jets delivered is small, and Jonathan notes that the F-16s have potentially been operating across the border from Romania for some time.
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Ukraine F-16 deployment strategy - a cautious approach?
🎦 01:05-02:35⏩
Jonathan speculates about Ukraine's deployment strategy for the F-16s. He believes they are likely testing the aircraft gradually, ensuring logistics and flight readiness before deploying them openly in Ukraine. This cautious approach aims to avoid direct Russian attacks on the aircraft and their base in Ukraine.
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Kyiv Independent article - more detail on F-16 delivery
🎦 02:35-03:52⏩
The Kyiv Independent article provides more details about the F-16 delivery. Although the exact number of jets received is not confirmed, the article states that they arrived despite delays. The F-16 is a significant upgrade for Ukraine's air force, as they are reliant on older Soviet-era aircraft.
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Potential impact of F-16s - a turning point in the war?
🎦 03:52-05:09⏩
Retired Polish Brigadier General Yaroslav Kraszewski believes the F-16s could help Ukraine launch a counter-offensive. He believes they could dramatically change the situation on the battlefield, though not be a game changer in itself. He emphasizes the need for long-range missiles to destroy Russian infrastructure.
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Limitations of F-16s - range and weapon restrictions
🎦 05:09-06:42⏩
Jonathan discusses the F-16's limitations in the Ukrainian context. It is believed that the aircraft will not be able to strike deep into Russia, limiting their effectiveness against targets like airfields. Discussions are ongoing about what weapons will be supplied with the F-16s.
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Potential F-16 roles - cruise missile defence and glide bombs
🎦 06:42-07:30⏩
Jonathan predicts that the F-16s will be initially used to defend against cruise missiles, rather than close air support or engaging Russian air defences. Experts suggest the F-16s could potentially be used with glide bombs, as the French Hammer guided glide bomb has been adapted for the aircraft. Ukraine is also working on its own glide bombs.
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F-16 limitations - range and air support
🎦 07:30-08:21⏩
The limited range of the F-16s means they will struggle to operate over the Black Sea and provide effective air support near the front line. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of Swedish-donated radar aircraft, which can increase the range of the F-16s and enhance their effectiveness.
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Potential impact of F-16s - game changer?
🎦 08:21-09:02⏩
Jonathan explores whether the F-16s could be a game changer for Ukraine. He suggests that destroying Russian aircraft on or over Russian territory would have a significant impact, but this is likely not possible due to weapon restrictions.
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Risks of F-16 deployment - scarce resources and training
🎦 09:02-09:46⏩
Experts caution against using the F-16s in a straight air-to-air fight or against unsuppressed air defences, as this would risk scarce resources and pilots. Ukraine's accelerated training program might not have been as extensive as they would like, which they will need to consider. Despite these risks, there is still potential for Ukraine to employ innovative tactics to ambush Russian aircraft.
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F-16 limitations - number and range
🎦 09:46-10:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the number of F-16s pledged to Ukraine so far - 79. Both Zelensky and other Western leaders believe this is insufficient to counter Russia's air power. The range of the F-16s also poses challenges, making it difficult to engage Russian aircraft operating from long distances over Russian territory.
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Accepting losses - F-16s vs. infantry
🎦 10:18-11:46⏩
Jonathan emphasizes that Ukraine will inevitably lose some F-16s and pilots, but argues that these losses are more sustainable than infantry losses on the front line. He believes that there is more scope for Ukraine to train new pilots and replace lost aircraft than to replace lost infantry personnel. He encourages viewers not to be disheartened by potential F-16 losses.
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F-16s - limited combat role in 2024 - New York Times report
🎦 11:46-12:52⏩
The New York Times has reported that only about 10 F-16s might see combat in 2024 due to limited pilot training and aircraft numbers. Russia is likely to evolve its tactics to target air bases, and Ukraine is adapting by using decoys. The F-16s are expected to create no-fly zones for Russian aircraft, though their initial role is likely to focus on air defense.
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US to provide F-16s with advanced weapons
🎦 12:52-13:45⏩
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the US has agreed to equip F-16s being sent to Ukraine with American-made missiles and other advanced weapons. These include HARM, JDAM, SBD, AMRAM, and Sidewinder, all of which have already been provided to Ukraine. However, Ukraine needs SLAM-ER and baseline JASSM cruise missiles, which the Americans are currently refusing to supply.
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US support for F-16 ordnance - positive news
🎦 13:45-14:51⏩
Despite the lack of cruise missiles, the US's commitment to supplying the F-16s with other advanced weapons is considered positive news. This ensures that the F-16s will have sufficient ordnance to carry out their missions. While Ukraine ideally needs cruise missiles, the provision of these other munitions will be a significant boost.
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F-16s arrive - a major development
🎦 14:51-15:13⏩
Although not officially confirmed, it appears that Ukraine now has F-16s. This is a significant development, particularly given the potential for a major Russian missile attack.
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Potential Russian missile attack - 3 submarines deployed
🎦 15:13-16:13⏩
Jonathan highlights the possibility of a massive Russian missile attack, noting that three cruise missile-carrying submarines have been deployed in the Black Sea. This is the first time all three subs have been deployed simultaneously, suggesting a large-scale operation. Russia has been stockpiling missiles, and the recent Shahid drone attack might have been a precursor to a missile attack.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:13-16:22⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, stating that the F-16 news is a significant breaking news item and that he wanted to share it with his viewers.
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